The African National Congress (ANC) may struggle to regain its parliamentary majority in the near future, despite claims of internal reforms and lessons learned after its worst electoral performance in three decades, a political analyst has warned.
The ANC, which has governed South Africa since 1994, saw its national support drop below 50% in last year’s elections, losing key provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. A year later, the party holds just 40% of national support, forcing it into coalition agreements with smaller parties—some of which were once its staunchest opponents.
A Devastating Electoral Blow
On election day last year, the ANC did not anticipate the scale of its losses. Party leaders had expressed confidence in securing a firm majority, but voter disillusionment led to a historic decline.
“The people of South Africa will give the ANC, as they vote today, a firm majority,” Cyril Ramaphosa asserted before the results came in. However, the outcome proved otherwise.
Internal Divisions and Failings
A political analyst attributed the ANC’s decline to internal fractures and self-interest among its leaders.
“The growth of factions in the ANC and strong men and women whose interests became bigger than the interests of the party made it impossible for them to take corrective action to prevent significant electoral losses,” he said.
ANC Vows Reform, But Recovery Uncertain
The ANC has acknowledged its disconnect from voters and claims to be undergoing a period of reflection and restructuring. Party officials say they are focusing on rebuilding grassroots structures, fostering discipline among members, and reconnecting with communities.
“Where we’ve disconnected from the electorate, this is what we’re looking at—party-building, activist branches rooted in communities, and a strong degree of humility required from members and leaders,” an ANC representative said.
The party remains optimistic that it can regain lost support by addressing economic challenges more aggressively. “If the ANC can tackle the issues of the economy more aggressively, it could easily get 60% from South Africans,” the representative argued, suggesting that low voter turnout—rather than mass defections to rival parties—was the main factor in its decline.
A Slow Rebuild Ahead
However, he cautioned that a swift return to dominance is unlikely. “What it can do is rebuild slowly,” he said.
For now, the ANC’s future hinges on its ability to stabilize its internal divisions, deliver tangible improvements, and convince disillusioned voters to return. But with coalition governance becoming the new reality, South Africa’s political landscape may have shifted permanently.