A prominent business leader has issued a stark warning that South Africa is deteriorating into a “mafia state” due to a failure to uphold the law, raising the risk of volatile security unrest ahead of the 2029 national elections.
The caution came from Colin Coleman, the Co-Chairman of the Youth Employment Service (YES) and former CEO of Goldman Sachs in Sub-Saharan Africa, during a televised interview following the publication of his opinion piece in the Sunday Times.
Coleman pointed to the country’s severe challenges, including more than eight million unemployed citizens, rampant public sector corruption, and deep inequality, as the primary drivers of widespread discontent. He described a dangerous merging of political and criminal networks at local, provincial, and central government levels.
“What we are seeing is a wide distribution of the rise of connections between political and criminal networks,” Coleman stated. He clarified that South Africa remains a constitutional democracy but is operating in a “vacuum” of leadership and accountability, which criminal syndicates are exploiting.
The interview highlighted the proliferation of organized crime, referred to as the “taxi mafia, the construction mafia, [and] the illegal underground mafia.” Coleman argued that these networks are crowding out formal investment and job creation by creating an environment of instability and uncertainty.
“The danger is that… those criminal networks will crowd out formal employment and formal investment,” he said, explaining that businesses with capital are hesitant to invest without stability.
The discussion connected this criminal rise to the nation’s youth crisis. With over half the population being young and an economic growth rate of just 1% for 15 years—below population growth—Coleman warned that South Africans are effectively getting poorer. He cited the work of YES, which has placed 200,000 youths and generated R11.5 billion in salaries, as a “drop in the ocean” compared to the 12 million people seeking work.
When pressed on solutions, Coleman emphasized the urgent need to “fix the legal and judicial pipeline,” pointing to a lack of consequences for wrongdoing. He noted that recommendations from the Zondo Commission into state capture have largely gone unimplemented, with individuals accused of wrongdoing still sitting in cabinet.
“We’re creating a vacuum in which there is no consequence for wrongdoing in South Africa, apparently,” he said.
Alarmingly, he referenced a report that 12 lawyers involved in legal or business rescue cases have been assassinated, signaling a direct attack on the country’s legal system.
While not calling for regime change, Coleman expressed significant doubt about the current government’s ability to complete its term. He suggested that mounting pressures from scandals, unemployment, and inequality could lead to an early election.
“On the balance of probabilities, it’s unlikely that this government at this current rate, without changing course, will be able to stay course for the next three and a half years,” he stated.
He further warned of the potential for social unrest similar to the “Arab Spring,” which could manifest in distributed protests or a centralized event like the July 2021 unrest.
When questioned about the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, Coleman did not endorse him as the solution. He contrasted the current administration with the era of former President Jacob Zuma, describing the past as “state capture” led by “acts of commission,” while the present is a “vacuum” characterized by a lack of accountability for widespread criminal acts.
Coleman’s final call was for the government of national unity and all political parties to be held accountable and to “redouble efforts” on both security and economic growth to avert a deepening crisis.
