A dangerous new alliance between Al-Qaeda-linked militants and Tuareg separatists is tearing Mali apart. In a coordinated shock offensive, the rebels have seized two strategic northern cities, killed the country’s defense minister—known as “Mr. Russia”—and are now tightening a noose around the capital, Bamako.
The Islamist group JNIM (Jamāʻat Nuṣrat al-Islām wal-Muslimīn) has been fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), formerly the main Tuareg rebel movement. Over the past week, they have overrun Tessalit and Aguelhok—both former separatist strongholds—and are systematically ejecting government forces from the north.
“The situation is highly fluid,” says Beverly Ochieng, a West Africa specialist at Control Risks, a global political risk advisory firm. Speaking from Dakar, she explains: “We’ve seen real progress in the north thanks to unprecedented coordination between JNIM and the FLA. As of this weekend, they had taken several more military bases.”
This offensive follows the final collapse of a fragile 2023–2024 peace deal between Bamako and the separatists. Government troops, backed by Russian mercenaries, are now fighting on two fronts—north and center—where several army bases are under direct threat.
“Mr. Russia” Killed in Combat
The crisis has already claimed its most senior scalp: Defense Minister Sadio Camara, the man who first brought Russian mercenaries into Mali. Camara was killed in recent clashes. Considered the regime’s second-in-command, he was the chief architect of Moscow’s growing military foothold in the country.
Ochieng recalls that Camara initially invited the notorious Wagner Group, which left a trail of heavy-handed tactics and alleged atrocities—including a suspected massacre of civilians in Moura, which the Malian government denies. After Wagner’s retreat, the more Kremlin-aligned Africa Corps stepped in, described by Ochieng as “more risk-averse.” Today, roughly 2,000 Russian personnel are on the ground.
But the analyst highlights a critical weakness: “Their responsiveness is slower. Negotiating with them to reach the front line takes more time. That’s partly why militants have been able to make such massive incursions.”
Enemy Inside the Barracks?
As the army reels, Ochieng reveals a stunning development: some Malian soldiers have been arrested on suspicion of collaborating with JNIM. “There are concerns about serious intelligence gaps inside the Malian army—gaps that enabled last Saturday’s attacks to happen,” she says.
JNIM, formed in 2017 from four militant groups, remains highly active across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Its leader is Iyad ag Ghaly, a Tuareg from the northern Kidal region, and its ranks are fueled by local grievances against the state, as well as religious ideology. Where it has seized control—especially in central Mali—it has forcibly imposed its harsh version of Sharia law.
Blockading Bamako
Perhaps most alarming: JNIM is now attempting a complete siege of Bamako, a sprawling city of over 2.5 million. While some routes remain open—notably toward the airport and the southern town of Niono—travel from the western Kayes region has become perilous.
“JNIM stated that people may leave the capital, but they are not allowed back in,” Ochieng says. “The purpose of this siege is to pressure ordinary citizens, so they in turn pressure the government to step down.”
Fuel shortages are already hitting the city. Nearly 800 fuel trucks entered Bamako yesterday—far below normal daily receipts, even before the blockade and a previous fuel embargo. Ochieng warns that JNIM could soon seal off the remaining open routes to tighten the stranglehold.
Abandoned by the World, Clinging to Russia
Mali’s security landscape has collapsed since foreign forces pulled out. Just three years ago, a combined 17,000 French, UN, and US troops were supporting Bamako. Today, that force has been replaced by roughly 2,000 Russians.
Regional neighbors are reluctant to intervene, especially after Mali and its junta-led allies left ECOWAS—a bloc that, in any case, lacked real counterinsurgency capacity. Mali has been under military rule since 2020. After the defense minister’s death, regime leader Assimi Goïta reportedly vanished from public view for days. His first visit upon re-emerging? To the Russian ambassador—a stark reminder of who Bamako is now betting its survival on.