Former Army Special Forces operator Jim Hanson says Tehran cannot pay its troops, has no room left for oil, and may soon surrender its nuclear material.
As the U.S. military presses forward with operations in the Strait of Hormuz, a seasoned Middle East expert is warning that Iran’s government is facing an economic meltdown that could force it to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Jim Hanson, a United States Army Special Forces veteran, said the ongoing blockade against Iran is inflicting far more damage than is widely understood. While he acknowledged the difficulty of defending ships in the strategic waterway—noting that Iran only needs “to get lucky once to look like they’re winning”—he argued that the regime is already crumbling from within.
“They are in deep trouble,” Hanson said. “Their economy is broken. They can’t pay their troops, and they don’t have much time left.”
According to Hanson, Iran’s oil storage is completely full, forcing the regime to reactivate derelict tankers just to pump crude into them. He explained that shutting down their oil fields is not a viable option, because they “may not be able to restart them.”
Hanson also dismissed the notion that the U.S. would send ground troops to seize what President Trump has referred to as “nuclear dust,” calling that scenario “messy.” Instead, he predicted that mounting economic pressure will push Iran to hand over its uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency or another third party.
“They have no navy, no air force, no anti-aircraft equipment, no radar, nothing,” Hanson added. “The leaders happen to be gone also.”
Despite the risks, Hanson expressed confidence in the U.S. military’s ability to protect shipping lanes, while pointing to falling oil prices as evidence that markets are betting on American success. He dismissed critics who predicted a recession, a stock market crash, or $200-a-barrel oil as “doom mongers” who “don’t want President Trump to triumph.”
“The markets are betting on America, and any smart person should be doing the same,” Hanson said. “We’ll win this. It’s just a little bit ugly before we get to the end.”