Keir Starmer has been given a stark warning by a former senior Labour communications chief: improve the government’s performance, or his premiership may not survive until the next general election.
Speaking after Labour suffered hundreds of council seat losses across England, fell behind Plaid Cymru in Wales, and watched Reform UK make major gains across all three nations, Tom Baldwin – former Labour Head of Communications and author of Keir Starmer: The Biography – said the Prime Minister has secured only a temporary reprieve.
“He is slightly on notice,” Baldwin said. “A condition of his survival is improvement. A condition of him fighting on for years rather than just months is that he starts showing this government is based towards the British people, not towards the internal machinations of Westminster.”
Baldwin revealed that according to some polls, the five most unpopular prime ministers in British history – in ascending order – are Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Starmer. He argued this reflects “the state of the nation” rather than individual failures, citing a “hair-trigger anger and outrage over everything.”
The former Labour insider acknowledged the losses were “very, very big” but noted they did not reach the top end of people’s worst fears. He explained that Labour is losing votes “in five different ways to five different parties” – the Greens, Liberal Democrats, nationalists in Scotland and Wales, and Reform UK – making it impossible to construct a single coherent narrative.
Baldwin dismissed immediate calls for a leadership contest, warning it would be “irresponsible” given global instability, including two wars and potential market turmoil. “They’ve got a 165-seat working majority. What they need to do is get on and govern, stop squabbling, stop talking about themselves.”
He noted there is no obvious successor to Starmer. Regarding Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Baldwin said: “He is a candidate but he’s currently unavailable because he’s not an MP.” He added that Burnham’s mayoral term ends in 12 to 18 months, at which point a return to parliament “makes everything much more interesting.”
Baldwin identified Labour’s biggest mistake as becoming consumed by Westminster insider politics – advisers, betting procedures, and appointments – while ordinary Britons feel excluded. “Politics is not about them. It’s just about the people in power or the people vying for power. It’s a game.”
On Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, Baldwin said: “Nigel Farage is deeply unpopular in this country. I think he’s the second most unpopular leader after Keir Starmer.” He raised concerns about an undisclosed £5 million donation from a non-domicile Bitcoin billionaire in Thailand, arguing that similar scrutiny would have destroyed a Labour leader.
Baldwin warned that Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system could allow Farage to become prime minister with just 23-25% of the vote – “a disaster for Britain.” He added that Reform has already produced “total chaos” in councils such as Staffordshire.
Starmer is expected to deliver a major speech on Monday outlining an agenda for the next 12 to 18 months, including language on Britain’s relationship with Europe that will be “very closely watched.” Baldwin concluded that the Prime Minister wants to be defined by changing the country for the better – not by internal party battles or the appointment of a single ambassador. “If he goes now, that won’t be his legacy.”