Dan Hoffman says Tehran will likely counter any peace proposal, as the regime shows willingness to shoot its own citizens to survive
As Middle East peace talks continue, one thing has become clear: Iran is desperate to avoid a return of American airstrikes, according to a former CIA station chief.
Dan Hoffman, a Fox News contributor, explained that while Iran has a reputation for tough negotiating tactics, its primary motivation is self-preservation following significant damage to its military infrastructure from previous United States strikes.
“I think Iran will come back with a proposal, a counterproposal, because they don’t want the United States to restart airstrikes that have been so damaging to their military infrastructure,” Hoffman said.
He cautioned that whatever Tehran puts forward is unlikely to be final. “I very much doubt whatever they send us will be the last iteration of this peace negotiation of a deal,” he said. “But it may be a step — albeit a small one — and the Trump administration will need to determine, based on what Iran does and the intelligence reporting, whether we should proceed with further negotiations or dial up the military pressure, keep up the blockade, and induce a better response from the Iranians.”
Regime’s Survival Tactics Include Violence Against Civilians
When asked how long the Iranian regime could withstand current pressure, Hoffman noted that estimates from his intelligence sources suggest a window of one to three months. However, he emphasized that the regime has demonstrated a chilling willingness to turn its weapons on its own people.
“There’s a super-high threshold for pain when it comes to their own citizens,” Hoffman said. “They do not care. The IRGC and the paramilitary force will take the weapons out and shoot their own population.”
He added that this reality complicates any effort to pressure Tehran into concessions, and that further strikes on Iranian leadership may be necessary if negotiators do not act in good faith.
China Balances Oil Imports With Alliance to Tehran
Hoffman also addressed China’s complex position in the crisis. While Beijing has significantly reduced its oil purchases from Iran — a cut large enough to help stabilize global prices — it continues to supply Iran with drone technology and engines.
“Ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports were going to China,” Hoffman said. “There’s a lot to get out. China would like to reduce or eliminate altogether U.S. influence in the Middle East. Iran is their ally, and we have to take that into account as the president goes to Beijing and goes into painstaking negotiations on issues including trade, arms control, AI — a host of issues.”
He noted that Iran had initially banked on closing the Strait of Hormuz to damage the global economy and rally international pressure against the United States, but that effort has been undercut by increased oil flows from Saudi and Emirati companies, as well as China’s reduced Iranian imports. Hoffman also suggested Tehran is attempting to influence US domestic politics ahead of the midterm elections by trying to drive up gasoline prices and affect American households’ affordability concerns.
