As the African National Congress prepares to hold a special national executive committee meeting in Cape Town on Thursday evening, political analyst Asanda Ngoasheng says the party finds itself in a difficult position over how to handle the constitutional court judgment on the Phala Phala farm independent panel report.
Last week, the apex court ruled that parliament’s decision to block an impeachment inquiry into President Cyril Ramaphosa was unconstitutional and invalid. In 2022, a Section 89 independent report found that Ramaphosa may have a case to answer regarding foreign currency found at his Limpopo farm. Ramaphosa has said he will challenge the finding, maintaining that the report is flawed.
“It’s very interesting that we are here at this moment in time because it was the very ANC that protected Ramaphosa during the parliamentary hearings and when the report came they supported him,” Ngoasheng said. “Now they’re going to have to decide: are they going to say that we support our president unequivocally, or are they going to say that they’re just going to let due process take place?”
Ngoasheng noted that the ANC is currently busy with its process of trying to choose Ramaphosa’s successor, describing it as “always a tricky time.” She added that the party is also in the run-up to local elections in November, making the scandal politically sensitive for both the president and the ANC.
The analyst pointed to existing factions within the ANC, with some looking to potential new leader Paul Mashatile and others wanting to continue supporting Ramaphosa until at least 2029. She noted that a media clip has been circulating showing the former speaker admitting that what parliament did was wrong.
However, Ngoasheng emphasized that the court did not rule on whether Ramaphosa did wrong or not. “They just basically said that not letting the impeachment committee sit with the report and make the decision is what’s wrong.”
She said the timing is also critical for the ANC’s Government of National Unity partners, noting that in 2022 the ANC was a majority party and didn’t have to deal with other political parties potentially having to support Ramaphosa should he be impeached. The Democratic Alliance, she said, was very much pushing for the issue to be ventilated to the full extent of the law.
“It remains to be seen when a vote needs to be done if they will stick with Ramaphosa or if they will try to protect continuity within the GNU,” Ngoasheng said.
The analyst outlined several possibilities, including that Ramaphosa could be impeached and a GNU member who is not an ANC member could be installed as president. She also raised the possibility that GNU partners might meet and decide that for continuity’s sake, Ramaphosa must continue.
“I don’t think that the ANC is going to call for him to resign or anything like that,” Ngoasheng said. “I think they’re going to back him and they’re going to go behind him. I think they’re likely to just say that the people must let due process take place.”
She added that she does not see the DA calling for Ramaphosa’s resignation should it get to impeachment: “They quite like him as the president right now.”
Ngoasheng noted that Ramaphosa appeared confident ahead of the meeting, having already received public support from Gwede Mantashe before addressing the nation. However, she cautioned that “it’s not over until the fat lady sings,” and said the NEC could still raise questions or demand terms for their support.
The analyst also highlighted the difficult position of GNU partners, who could be accused of supporting corruption if they back the president or accused of supporting governance disruption if they do not.
“The ANC has a history of supporting its presidents,” Ngoasheng said. “We saw with Zuma, there was nothing that Jacob Zuma could do to get them to remove him really until the very last moment.”