A tightly contested by-election in Emfuleni Ward 28 has reignited conversation about shifting political allegiances in South Africa, after the Democratic Alliance secured a narrow victory in a ward historically held by the ANC. The DA claimed 32.36% of the vote—more than doubling its support from 14% in 2021 and improving on its 19% showing in the 2024 national elections—with the final margin standing at just eight votes.
In response to the outcome, a DA spokesperson stated that the result signals South Africans are “choosing change and governments that work.” However, election analyst Thembelani Mazibuko urged caution against overinterpreting isolated by-election data.
“By-elections are one data point in a relatively small part of the province,” Mazibuko noted. “We can make more meaningful conclusions when we have perhaps a string of by-elections in and around the area. But so far, so good for the Democratic Alliance.”
Mazibuko pointed to strategic investment by the DA in municipalities such as Emfuleni, Midvaal, Mogale City, and Ekurhuleni as a likely factor behind the improved performance, even as larger metros like Johannesburg and Tshwane continue to dominate national political coverage. The analyst observed that both the ANC and EFF experienced declines in their vote shares within the ward, while the DA’s gains suggest focused preparation for the broader local government election cycle.
Other parties also registered noteworthy movements. The Patriotic Alliance expanded its footprint, building on prior gains in select wards across the Western Cape, Northern Cape, and Eastern Cape. Meanwhile, the South African Communist Party, which contested the ward, received approximately 3% of the vote. Mazibuko contextualised this figure, explaining that by-elections allow smaller parties to concentrate national resources and mobilise activists in a single location—a dynamic that may not reflect broader electoral capacity.
“The SACP is able to steward resources towards this by-election… so they can bring resources from other regions into this particular part of the country,” Mazibuko explained. “I wouldn’t want to draw too much conclusion with regards to the result of the South African Communist Party. Subsequent by-election results may be able to give us a deeper story.”
The MK Party’s decision not to field a candidate in Ward 28 also featured in the analysis. Mazibuko highlighted that local government elections demand extensive grassroots infrastructure and geographic reach—requirements that differ significantly from national contests. While absent in Emfuleni, the MK Party has recorded by-election victories beyond its KwaZulu-Natal base, including wins in the North West Province and Western Cape.
“Smaller parties by nature are going to have a challenge: newer, they have less resources, they don’t have the kind of branches that bigger parties may have,” Mazibuko said. “They would definitely have to focus and steward their resources.” The analyst added that even longer-established formations like the IFP remain regionally concentrated, primarily in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng and Mpumalanga, illustrating the strategic targeting required for effective local campaigning.
Looking ahead, Mazibuko indicated that clearer national trends will emerge following the local government elections scheduled for 2 November, when voters across all municipalities cast ballots. Until then, individual ward results should be treated as suggestive indicators rather than definitive predictors of wider electoral realignment.