What’s at stake for the environment in Colombia’s upcoming election?

Colombia’s first round of presidential elections on May 31 saw right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella take the top spot with 43.7% of the vote, followed by left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, with 40.9%. The future of the Colombian Amazon, the fossil fuel phaseout commitments made by current President Gustavo Petro and the rights of Indigenous peoples and other traditional communities are all at stake during the runoff on June 21.

Colombia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 and has a legally binding net-zero target for 2050. Analysts at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) say Petro’s government made some progress, but deep reductions in emissions are critical, in particular from deforestation and agriculture, as well as reforms to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

As a result, who Colombia elects next will have major implications for the country’s climate ambitions.

When Petro took office in 2022, he made the fossil fuel phaseout and environmental protection central features of his government’s agenda. He promised to become a leader in the defense of life, which involved transforming the country’s relationship with nature and “Total Peace” (Paz Total) — his administration’s flagship peace policy aimed to end Colombia’s decades-long armed conflict.

Petro opposed new oil and gas exploration contracts and has been vocal about environmental justice and the energy transition at the international level, including at the United Nations General Assembly, the World Economic Forum in Davos and the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COPs). In April, Colombia held the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, which was viewed as a historic achievement and a momentous step toward ending fossil fuel dependency.

Four years later, analysts say Petro has fallen short on the implementation of many of his promises. Cepeda intends to continue the social and environmental vision of the Historical Pact, the left-wing progressive political party founded by Petro. Meanwhile, de la Espriella’s priority is tackling crime and economic growth.

While Cepeda has made promises to protect territories and communities and reduce dependency on oil, de la Espriella plans to expand the country’s extractive industries and re-establish the fossil fuel sectors.

Agriculture and extractive industries

According to a data set published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Colombia has 1,128 oil and gas lease blocks, 13% of which are located in the Colombian Amazon, covering 18 million hectares (44.4 million acres) of forest. Of all 1,128, the majority are in the pre-lease stage (494) and pre-production stage (377). Only 257 are in the production stage.

In the Amazon, the majority of oil and gas lease blocks are in the pre-production stage, covering 80,000 hectares (197,684 acres) of rainforest; 59 are in the pre-lease stage and 17 in the production stage.

If elected, de la Espriella intends to recover the exploration and production of oil and gas in Colombia, treating these industries as a strategic priority, according to his government plan. His agenda involves reducing regulation to enable the acceleration of extractive projects and other industries, such as mining for strategic minerals like gold, copper, silver and rare earths and agricultural production for export.

Cepeda’s government plan states that he wants to convert Colombia into a “major agri-food power,” but with a focus on the large-scale redistribution and formalization of land — another continuation from the Petro administration.

Colombia currently has very poor land distribution. The top 1% of landowners own 46.9% of land, corresponding to 18 million hectares (44.5 million acres) of the 38 million hectares (93.9 million acres) considered in an analysis by the Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute (IGAC). The top 5% of landowners own 70.6%, or 27.1 million hectares (67 million acres).

As part of his agrarian reform promises, Cepeda wrote that he will protect and recognize peasant farmers’ rights, enhance agricultural security, expand healthcare and services in rural areas and open a just market for peasant farmers. He has also promised to re-establish strategic production chains, such as cotton, cassava, cacao and coffee, and create a national program for fishing and fish farming.

Violence and communities

The candidates’ position on armed conflict in Colombia could also be significant for the country’s environment. According to a study published in World Development, conflict-related forced displacement led to increased deforestation between 1991 and 2015, the period when Colombia experienced the highest rates of displacement and violence.

The armed groups have also been responsible for environmental destruction caused by the illegal extraction of minerals and other natural resources, illicit crop cultivation and the use of hazardous chemicals, such as mercury. While both candidates wish to close the cycle of violence that has marked Colombia’s history, they each have dramatically different stances on how to achieve this.

Cepeda, who has previously worked as a facilitator and negotiator in the peace process and a mediator between governments and social movements, believes in peace and dialogue. His father Manuel Cepeda Vargas, a leading leftist senator, journalist and leader of the Patriotic Union political party, was assassinated by right-wing paramilitary gunmen in 1994 in Bogotá.

On the other hand, de la Espriella is critical of Petro’s stance on Total Peace and has promised to take a much tougher approach to crime, known as “iron fist” (mano dura) politics, which resembles the approach of President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador. This involves the recuperation of territorial control using greater force, the development of 10 mega-prisons and the abandonment of peace negotiations with armed groups.

In November, Colombia will celebrate the 10th anniversary of its 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Force of Colombia–People’s Army (FARC-EP) guerrilla group, which sought to end a five-decade conflict that led to approximately 450,000 deaths. Since the agreement, dissident groups and other armed groups have proliferated; attacks have intensified; and coca crops have increased. Analysts blame the agreement’s slow and incomplete implementation.

Armed groups in Colombia are increasingly turning to other environmental crimes, such as illegal gold mining, to bring in profits. A recent report by the International Crisis Group says armed groups have expanded across the Colombian Amazon in search of gold mines, forging alliances with local groups to operate mining sites and provide protection for equipment.

This criminal presence, particularly in Indigenous territories, has led to displacement, environmental degradation, mercury contamination from mining, food insecurity and other threats.

Analysts say de la Espriella has capitalized on this context of insecurity to push a politics of fear and militarization. As part of his promises, he wants to bring back aerial fumigation and the manual eradication of coca crops, an approach used by former governments that involved tearing the plants out of the ground or using aircraft to spray herbicides over 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of the country. This strategy was met with fierce opposition from civil rights groups and communities, who raised concerns about health and environmental damage due to chemical exposure and the impacts on the coca growers’ livelihoods.

To combat environmental crime, Cepeda has promised to strengthen early alert systems, participatory monitoring and integrated responses to threats. If elected, the administration plans to use environmental intelligence to detect real-time deforestation, illegal mining and water pollution.

Cepeda also wants to improve dialogue between the National Force and social and community movements to increase participation in discussions about local security. On communities, he said there is a need to reclaim the wisdom of ancestral and native peoples and has promised to maintain permanent conversations with social and popular organizations.

De la Espriella did not mention Indigenous communities or Afro-descendant communities in his government plan, but said he plans to return property to peasant farmers.

Banner image: River near Penalosa in Colombia’s Choco region. Photo by Rhett A. Butler.

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Alexandra Popescu Senior Editor – Latin America

This story first appeared on Mongabay

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