JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — Former Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon has cautioned that South Africa’s state institutions are critically hollowed out, setting the stage for a severe test of law and order during the planned June 30 anti-illegal immigration protests.
In a recently published opinion piece, Leon drew parallels to Martin Niemöller’s renowned “First they came” poem, using the historic condemnation of moral cowardice and political apathy to frame the current national climate. While he was careful to clarify that the country does not mirror Nazi Germany, he stressed that the foundational constitutional state is facing unprecedented threats from within.
At the heart of Leon’s argument is the severe degradation of the security cluster. He highlighted a profound leadership vacuum within the South African Police Service (SAPS), noting the absence of a permanent police minister, who is currently on leave pending an investigation. Similarly, the national police chief position is occupied by an acting head because the former incumbent is also facing investigation. Compounding this instability, Leon described a public “verbal war” erupting between the provincial police leadership in KwaZulu-Natal and the independent investigative directorate overseeing security services.
These assessments were strongly corroborated by Ian Cameron, the chairperson of the parliamentary portfolio committee on policing. Cameron emphasized that the SAPS currently deploys fewer operational officers than it did a decade ago, a severe deficit exacerbated by population growth and cross-border migration. He further revealed that the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, commonly known as the Hawks, is functioning at a mere 45% capacity. Consequently, Cameron argued that the police force cannot manage the impending security challenges in isolation and must rely on a robust partnership with the private security sector.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by South Africa’s tragic history of state failure during mass unrest. Leon pointed to the 2008 xenophobic riots in Khutsong, which claimed more than 60 lives—including 21 South African citizens, proving that disorder indiscriminately endangers everyone. More devastating was the July 2021 “free Zuma” looting spree, which resulted in over 350 fatalities and inflicted an estimated R50 billion in economic damages. In both historical instances, the state failed to preempt the violence.
Despite this grim backdrop, Leon expressed cautious optimism that authorities have learned from past mistakes. He pointed to enhanced preemptive coordination between public law enforcement and private security firms. Notably, the business lobby group Business for South Africa is financing the deployment of surveillance drones, a technological advantage that was virtually non-existent in 2021. Furthermore, the acting police minister confirmed that the government has injected R600 million into security preparations to ensure a normal working day and minimize property damage or loss of life.
Addressing the rhetoric surrounding the June 30 demonstrations, Leon affirmed that debates over border security and migration are protected under free speech. However, quoting an American jurist, he warned that the Constitution “is not a suicide note.” He expressed astonishment that no preemptive arrests had been made ahead of Tuesday against individuals allegedly using incendiary and insurrectionary language to stoke vigilante action, arguing that such behavior crosses the legal boundaries of constitutional protection.
Leon also dismantled the narrative that migrants are the root cause of the nation’s socio-economic woes. Estimating the migrant population at roughly 5%, he argued it is mathematically illogical to blame them for the country’s 42% unemployment rate, stagnant economic growth, or systemic poverty. Instead, he placed the primary onus on the elected government to improve national conditions, warning against the dangerous scapegoating of minority groups.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa recently acknowledged in a national address that public resources are indeed strained by unlawful residents, Leon questioned the broader competence of the state’s border management. He characterized the current push for mass repatriation as “shutting the door after the horse has bolted,” demanding accountability for how millions of undocumented individuals were permitted to enter the country and insisting that future border security must be the ultimate priority.