JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — As the 2026 Local Government Elections rapidly approach, South African political parties are intensifying their campaigns across key provinces. With the recent launch of new mayoral candidates and provincial manifestos, the race for municipal control has become increasingly fragmented, setting the stage for complex power-sharing arrangements and heightened electoral scrutiny.
Political activity has surged across multiple regions. The GOOD party, the United Democratic Movement (UDM), and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) have officially launched their mayoral candidates for Johannesburg and Cape Town. Concurrently, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) rolled out their provincial manifestos in the Eastern Cape (Umtata) and KwaZulu-Natal (Durban), while the African National Congress (ANC) intensified its campaign efforts in the North West and Eastern Cape.
Providing expert analysis on the evolving political landscape is Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast, Acting Director of the Centre for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University. According to Prof Breakfast, the EFF’s dual-province manifesto launch is a strategic attempt to reclaim lost ground. However, he noted that the party has experienced a downward electoral trend since 2021 and 2024, compounded by an exodus of senior members. He described any hope of an upward electoral trajectory for the EFF in the upcoming local elections as a “mission impossible,” despite their efforts to reconnect with their base. The Durban launch was notably marked by a brief conflict that required police de-escalation.
The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) also faces mounting internal pressure. Despite a strong initial performance in previous elections, the party has yet to launch its election manifesto. Tensions boiled over recently when disgruntled members stormed a marquee during a prayer session for peaceful elections led by party figurehead Jacob Zuma. Prof Breakfast highlighted that the MK Party’s constitution allows Zuma to make unilateral decisions, leading to the frequent “chopping and changing” of leaders. He warned that this centralization of power is an antithesis to democratic culture and paints a negative picture for the party.
In Johannesburg, the Patriotic Alliance has positioned Kenny Kunene as their mayoral candidate, focusing their campaign messaging on municipal debt and cushioning residents from high electricity and water costs. While acknowledging that the PA is poised to give the Democratic Alliance (DA) a strong run for its money, Prof Breakfast raised significant concerns regarding Kunene’s character. He pointed to past public controversies, including alleged links to criminal elements and highly criticized past behavior regarding women, noting that these factors raise valid questions among voters about his suitability to lead the city.
The ANC is navigating its own internal and external hurdles. In the Eastern Cape, the party is embroiled in a dispute over candidate lists. ANC leadership recently called out NEC member Andile Lungisa for taking the party to court over his removal from the electoral list, insisting it is an internal matter. Lungisa has countered that his removal occurred without explanation, rendering it unlawful. Prof Breakfast observed a clear tension within the ANC between leaders who demand internal resolution and members who feel forced to seek legal recourse after being ignored.
Despite these challenges, Prof Breakfast noted that the ANC retains an upper hand in rural areas like the Eastern Cape, where traditional leaders wield significant influence over voting patterns. However, the party struggles in urban centers like Johannesburg, where a more informed middle class votes based on service delivery track records rather than political nostalgia. The ANC’s current coalition leadership in Johannesburg has been hampered by intermittent water and power shortages, diminishing its chances of an outright win. Furthermore, the ANC remains on the back foot in Cape Town after failing to upload its candidate lists in time and suffering setbacks at the electoral court.
Smaller parties, including the GOOD party and the African Transformation Movement (ATM), are also actively campaigning, echoing familiar voter promises centered on reliable water, electricity, and community safety.
Ultimately, Prof Breakfast cautioned that the current political environment is highly fragmented. Outright winners are unlikely in many municipalities, which will inevitably necessitate power-sharing coalitions. He emphasized the urgent need for local authorities to institutionalize conflict management mechanisms to address internal contradictions, ensuring that future coalitions do not prematurely fall apart.
