MIDRAND, Gauteng — As South Africa prepares for the upcoming South African municipal elections, political analysts indicate that the MK Party holds a distinct advantage over other newly formed political movements. This assessment emerges as the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) gathers to solidify the framework for the local government polls, highlighting a shifting landscape where voter trust and service delivery are taking precedence over historical political loyalties.
Record Candidate Numbers and IEC Preparations
The electoral commission is currently hosting its code of conduct pledge signing ceremony and ballot paper draw at its headquarters in Midrand. The event requires all political parties, candidates, and supporters to commit to responsible conduct throughout the electoral process.
The scale of the upcoming election is staggering. According to IEC Vice-Chairperson Janet Love, the commission will print approximately 70 million ballot papers to accommodate the complex voting districts. Nearly 136,000 candidates are contesting across almost 800 councils, resulting in an average of 13 candidates competing for every available council seat. This surge in participation underscores a strong desire among South Africans to engage in local government activities, with a notable presence of independent candidates choosing to run outside of traditional political party structures.
The MK Party Advantage and Shifting Voter Priorities
Political analyst Professor Dirk Kotzé notes that while the ballot is crowded with new parties, most will struggle to secure votes due to a lack of a proven track record.
“Voters are moving away from emotional or historical lines and focusing more on bread-and-butter issues,” Professor Kotzé explained. “The question for voters is which party they can trust to deliver services without corruption. New parties depend on voters simply believing them, but the MK Party has already established itself in 2024, giving them a foundational track record that newer rivals lack.”
While historical parties face voter fatigue due to poor past performances, localized parties in smaller towns are leveraging community reputation through platforms like WhatsApp, though they historically struggle to convert this into significant vote shares.
Local Government in Financial Distress
The elections serve as a critical test for a local government sector in dire straits. A 2023 Cooperative Governance discussion document revealed that 76% of municipalities were either distressed or at risk, primarily driven by financial collapse.
Professor Kotzé highlighted that the situation is often worse in smaller local municipalities compared to major metros. These areas are losing their income bases due to urbanization, with poorer residents remaining behind and relying on municipal grants. Meanwhile, metro areas face an influx of people that their infrastructure simply cannot cope with, creating challenges at opposite ends of the spectrum. Addressing this, Kotzé stressed, will require structural spatial development changes rather than just improving existing systems.
Coalition Complexities and the Pending Coalition Bill
The 2021 local government elections resulted in 66 hung municipalities. However, Professor Kotzé clarified that the actual number of councils operating without a single-party majority was 81 out of 257.
He distinguished between true coalitions in the metros—which have suffered from instability and motions of no confidence—and multi-party governments in smaller councils utilizing a collective executive committee system, which he described as generally more effective.
Looking ahead, the role of small parties remains critical. To prevent disruptive, transactional “kingmaker” dynamics, a coalition bill is currently in the pipeline. The proposed legislation aims to introduce a 1% to 2% electoral threshold to keep extremely small parties out of council power dynamics, ensuring that coalition building is based on principles rather than purely transactional power plays.
ANC’s Constitutional Court Challenge
In a breaking legal development, the ANC has filed an urgent application before the Constitutional Court. The party is seeking to overturn an Electoral Court order that dismissed its application against the IEC, a ruling that effectively dashed the ANC’s hopes of having 181 specific candidates contest the November 4th poll.
When asked about the ANC’s prospects, Professor Kotzé assessed their chances as “very slim.” He noted that the IEC typically wins procedural cases and is rarely overturned on appeal. The onus is now on the ANC to prove that the IEC’s procedural interpretation was incorrect or that they were unfairly singled out compared to other parties who submitted their paperwork simultaneously without issue.
The Madlanga Commission’s Political Fallout
The political climate is further complicated by the ongoing Madlanga Commission, which Professor Kotzé described as a “truth commission” for the criminal justice system. The daily media coverage of the commission is impacting the ANC, as many individuals implicated or appointed during the party’s sole governance era are associated with the ruling party.
This dynamic is particularly sensitive regarding the minister on special leave—a former KwaZulu-Natal premier who was also referenced in the transcript in relation to the higher education portfolio. Professor Kotzé questioned why the minister remains on special leave rather than being dismissed based on evidence already presented in parliament and the media. He suggested that the ANC’s hesitation is tied to internal political considerations, specifically the need to protect the party’s political base in KwaZulu-Natal, making any decisive action against the former premier highly complex.
As the IEC finalizes the ballot draw and parties sign the code of conduct, the upcoming elections will undoubtedly be a defining moment for South Africa’s local governance, coalition maturity, and the future trajectory of its major political parties.
