Britain’s national security thinking has traditionally been shaped by familiar concerns: hostile states, terrorism, energy supply, and, more recently, cyber threats. A new assessment from the U.K. government adds a different category to that list. Global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, it argues, now pose a direct and growing risk to national security, with implications that extend well beyond conservation policy and into food supply, economic stability, migration, and conflict.
The assessment is explicit about its framing. This is not a scientific review, nor an environmental strategy. It is an intelligence-style analysis, designed to support national security planning under conditions of uncertainty. It draws on scientific literature, expert judgment, and probabilistic reasoning, applying the same tools used to assess geopolitical or military risk. Its core judgment is delivered with high confidence: global ecosystem degradation already threatens U.K. prosperity and security, and without major intervention, those risks are likely to intensify through mid-century and beyond.
At the heart of the argument is the idea of cascading risk. Ecosystems underpin food production, water availability, climate regulation, and disease control. When they degrade, the effects rarely remain local. Crop failures in one region can ripple through global markets. Water scarcity can destabilize fragile states. Disease outbreaks can spread rapidly through interconnected societies. The assessment emphasizes that biodiversity loss should be understood not as an isolated environmental problem, but as a multiplier of existing social, economic, and political stresses.
The report identifies several pathways through which ecosystem degradation translates into security risk:
- Food and water insecurity. Degradation of soils, fisheries, and pollinator populations reduces yields and increases volatility in global food markets. The U.K. imports around 40% of its food and is heavily reliant on overseas supply chains for fresh produce, animal feed, and fertilizers. Disruption in major producing regions would raise prices and constrain access, particularly for lower-income households.
- Migration pressures. Food insecurity and declining rural livelihoods are already major drivers of migration in parts of Central America, Africa, and Asia. The assessment points to evidence that even small increases in food insecurity can produce disproportionate increases in migration flows, with knock-on effects for regional stability and international politics.
- Conflict and organized crime. Scarcity creates opportunity. Competition over land, water, fisheries, and minerals can exacerbate existing conflicts or create new ones. Organized crime groups and non-state armed actors are likely to exploit shortages through black markets, trafficking, and resource capture, further eroding governance in vulnerable states.
- Pandemic risk. As ecosystems degrade and species are pushed into closer contact with humans, the likelihood of novel zoonotic disease transmission increases. Combined with higher mobility and weaker health systems in stressed regions, this raises the probability of outbreaks with global consequences.
The assessment pays particular attention to what it calls “critical ecosystems” whose collapse would have outsized global effects. Six regions are highlighted because of their scale, speed of potential collapse, and importance to climate, food, and water systems: the Amazon rainforest, the Congo Basin, boreal forests in Russia and Canada, the Himalayas, and coral reefs and mangroves in Southeast Asia. Severe degradation in any of these regions would likely alter global weather patterns, reduce arable land, disrupt fisheries, and release large stores of carbon, compounding climate risks.
Timing remains uncertain. The report is careful to distinguish confidence in direction from confidence in pace. While there is high confidence that all critical ecosystems are degrading, there is lower confidence about exactly when they may cross irreversible thresholds. Some systems, such as coral reefs, could begin collapsing within the next decade. Others, including major rainforests, face risks later in the century, depending on land use, climate trajectories, and policy choices.
For the U.K., food security emerges as a central vulnerability. The assessment is blunt: based on current diets and production systems, Britain cannot feed its population without imports. Full self-sufficiency would require substantial changes in consumption, land use, and pricing, alongside significant investment in agricultural resilience. Ecosystem collapse abroad would not remain an external problem. It would feed directly into domestic inflation, dietary restriction, and political pressure.
The report does not argue that technological innovation alone can resolve these risks. While emerging technologies in agriculture and food production may help, they require time, capital, and stable systems in which to scale. Protecting and restoring ecosystems is presented as the more reliable and cost-effective option, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding future tipping points.
What is striking about the assessment is not its alarmism, but its tone. It avoids apocalyptic language. It emphasizes uncertainty, limits of knowledge, and the need for probabilistic judgment. Yet the implication is clear. Biodiversity loss has moved from the margins of environmental policy into the core of national security planning. For governments accustomed to treating nature as a background condition, that shift may prove as consequential as the risks it describes.
Header image: Fire in Humaitá, Amazonas state, Brazil in August 2022. Photo © Christian Braga / Greenpeace.
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