JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — The highly anticipated selection of the ANC Johannesburg mayoral candidate 2026 has laid bare a critical vulnerability within the ruling party: a severe “question deficit” that leaves leadership entirely unchallenged, according to political commentator Leeto Nthoba. Ahead of a landmark announcement at the Sandton Convention Centre, Nthoba warns that the African National Congress is navigating the upcoming local government elections surrounded by “yes men and women,” severely limiting its capacity for meaningful self-correction.
The ANC is set to unveil its mayoral hopeful for Johannesburg before officially launching its 2026 local government elections manifesto in Rivonia, north of the city. This marks an unprecedented shift in the party’s history, as it has never before announced mayoral candidates prior to the elections themselves. Nthoba, a lecturer at the Central University of Technology, emphasized that the battle for key metropolitan municipalities—specifically Johannesburg, eThekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay—will ultimately determine whether the governing party can retain its municipal footholds amid severe service delivery pressures and increasingly complex coalition dynamics.
According to Nthoba, the ANC is currently trapped in a precarious political position, desperately seeking salvation. The party faces a stark dilemma: it can either rely on popular, established figures whose tenure has become synonymous with service delivery failures and public contempt, or it can pursue a renewal route with entirely new faces, which risks creating a trust deficit with communities unfamiliar with them. Consequently, the ANC is struggling to maintain its waning momentum, while introducing unknown candidates could result in outright electoral losses in both major metros and smaller municipalities. Nthoba noted that the position of the party’s Secretary-General is currently the “least enviable of all,” caught firmly between a rock and a hard place.
Reflecting on a decade of missed opportunities, Nthoba pointed to 2016, when then-Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe explicitly called for organizational renewal and self-correction. Ten years later, the same themes of self-reflection dominate, but the mechanism for achieving them is broken. Nthoba explained that in the process of quieting dissent against the National Executive Committee (NEC) and other structures, Mantashe purged branches of true believers and talented individuals who could have carried the organization’s mandate forward.
While this maneuver quieted internal descent, it did a profound disservice to the ANC’s future. Calling for renewal today means relying on “yes men and yes women” who have always blindly supported the prevailing message. This has resulted in a severe talent and question deficit. “Nobody in the ANC feels bold enough to question the direction of people who are in power,” Nthoba stated, adding that this lack of internal dissent cascades directly to the municipal level, manifesting in tangible failures like sewage blockages.
The party has effectively hamstrung itself by eliminating factionalism through the eradication of dissent, leaving it without a sounding board. “Everything that the president says is yes. Everything the secretary-general says is yes. Even when they’re clearly wrong, there’s nobody to stand in their way,” Nthoba observed. He highlighted the chilling effect this has on internal debate, referencing the political repercussions previously faced by prominent figures like Dlamini-Zuma following her dissenting parliamentary vote concerning President Cyril Ramaphosa. Historically, the ANC could naturally identify its strongest candidate from within; today, the absence of contrarians and independent thinkers means no truly strong candidate can emerge.
To counter this deficit, Nthoba recommended a strategic blend of youthful energy and experienced leadership. He suggested the ANC should leverage the South African Communist Party (SACP), the traditional think tank of the tripartite alliance, to field candidates in smaller municipalities rather than allowing the SACP to contest independently. Furthermore, he urged the ANC to abandon its pride and actively recruit former members. The party’s historical attitude that “it is cold outside the ANC and we will allow you to die there” has proven flawed, as there is no real political death outside its ranks.
Acknowledging the steep uphill battle, Nthoba predicted that Johannesburg is likely lost for the ANC, with eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay also poised to be highly contentious. He advised the party to strategically concede certain metropolitan losses and instead strengthen areas it can realistically win to demonstrate genuine renewal, much like the opposition does. Failing to do so, he warned, will lead the ANC into the political “grave” that analysts predicted a decade ago.
The opposition has already mobilized a formidable and diverse slate of contenders for Johannesburg:
- Democratic Alliance (DA): The DA has fielded former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier Helen Zille. Nthoba described Zille as a cutthroat and dogged leader who laid the foundation for modern Cape Town, signaling that the DA views reclaiming Johannesburg as a make-or-break fight.
- Rise Mzansi: Political analyst and activist Lukhona Mnguni has emerged as a knowledgeable “dark horse” candidate. His campaign effectively resonates with residents frustrated by water and electricity outages, framing the city’s mismanagement as the work of thieves (“amakhankatha”). This narrative sharply contrasts Rise Mzansi’s business-friendly, forward-thinking image with an ANC that Nthoba argues is “infested with people who are not necessarily thinking the best for the party.”
- ActionSA: Former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba is positioning himself as the outsider returning to fix the metro, with a campaign heavily focused on ridding the city of illegal immigrants. However, Nthoba cautioned that Mashaba’s success is heavily reliant on fragile coalitions. He lacks political tact on bread-and-butter issues like hijacked buildings and water access, making him vulnerable to acquiescing to kingmakers like the EFF, who have previously co-opted his past administrative victories.
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): The EFF has nominated Dr. Tlaleng Mofokeng, a highly educated clinician and former UN special rapporteur with strong international diplomacy experience. While a formidable candidate on paper, Nthoba warned her chances could be muddied by the EFF’s current political weaknesses and a potential voter reluctance to elect an educated Black woman from a deeply divisive party.
- Emerging Contenders: The race is further crowded by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which has nominated Mlungisi Mabaso; Build One South Africa (BOSA), putting forward Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster; and the Land Party, which has selected Nitsiki Mazwai to contest the metro, reflecting a highly fragmented but competitive opposition landscape.
Regarding the ANC’s internal dynamics, speculation points to a potential contest between Executive Mayor Dada Morero and Executive Deputy Mayor Loyiso Masuku. Nthoba dismissed this as mere internal party factionalism. He argued that if the current leadership were genuinely focused on fixing service delivery, the city’s challenges would have been resolved, or at least accompanied by a general corrective plan, by now.
“South Africans and Joburgers, in particular, should ask themselves if the election of this person is going to change the status quo, and how,” Nthoba concluded. He emphasized that a fresh election is insufficient without a concrete, actionable plan to tackle municipal debt and service delivery failures, noting that the ANC currently lacks the political muscle to convince voters, especially as opposition campaigns aggressively target the incumbent’s track record.
