JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — As the African National Congress (ANC) formally introduces its slate of ANC mayoral candidates for the impending local government elections, the ruling party faces a stark mathematical reality: current polling models project its metropolitan support could fall under 25%. The rollout, spearheaded by ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula, represents a deliberate pivot toward capability-based deployments, even as independent political analyst Sipho Masigo cautions that deep-seated voter fatigue and a history of municipal mismanagement could severely blunt the party’s electoral prospects.
During the announcement, the ANC President candidly acknowledged the severe realities facing South African municipalities, citing unpaid creditor bills, crumbling infrastructure, systemic corruption, wasteful expenditure, and a disconnect between mayors and the communities they serve. Masigo noted that while the ANC has a historical tendency to publicly air its internal challenges, the current electoral math is unforgiving. Polling data suggests the party could secure anywhere from 18% to a best-case scenario of 22% in key metros, cementing the projection of dropping under 25% and highlighting a consistent five-year downward trend exacerbated by widespread election fatigue.
To counter this decline, the party has overhauled its selection methodology. Moving away from a system of regional entitlement, the National Working Committee has actively vetted nominees to prioritize proven capabilities. The resulting list features highly qualified professionals, including doctors, lawyers, and seasoned administrators. In Tshwane, the lineup prominently features Electricity Minister Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and Transport MMC Tlangi Mogale, the latter praised by Masigo as a bright, strong, and highly capable female leader. In Johannesburg, the shortlist includes Dada Morero, Lisa Masuku, and Reverend Frank Chikane—a notable inclusion given previous speculation that he had withdrawn from political contention in the Eastern Cape. Meanwhile, Mandla Mandela remains on the ticket as the incumbent mayor of Ekurhuleni.
Coinciding with Women’s Month, the ANC highlighted that 54% of its mayoral nominees are women. Masigo emphasized that this is not a sudden adjustment, but rather a continuation of the party’s 30-year trajectory of elevating women into top-tier leadership roles across the National Executive Committee (NEC), parliament, and provincial structures, ensuring governance reflects the country’s largest demographic.
However, translating this lineup into votes requires overcoming complex governance realities. Masigo pointed out that since 2016, unstable coalition administrations have governed many major metros. This environment has frequently resulted in a revolving door of acting city managers, acting CFOs, and acting executive directors, creating a vacuum of long-term accountability. While the ANC must “take it on the chin” as the leading party, the analyst stressed that the dysfunction is a shared failure of coalition politics.
To address this, the ANC President pledged that successful mayors will be placed on a strict performance radar, complete with measurable indicators and swift interventions for those who fail to deliver. Yet, Masigo offered a reality check: the true hurdle is implementation. Historically, similar promises to manage the performance of non-attending or underperforming MPs and cabinet ministers have stalled, raising questions about whether local government will see different results.
The battle for the Johannesburg mayoral seat exemplifies the steep challenge ahead. The race is fiercely competitive, with opposition figures like Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba actively mobilizing their bases. Masigo highlighted a critical demographic hurdle for the ANC: in Johannesburg, white voters historically turn out to vote at significantly higher rates than the Black majority. With over 40 parties on the ballot, many disillusioned Black voters and apathetic youth feel alienated, viewing the political landscape as offering no meaningful alternatives.
Ultimately, the ANC’s campaign strategy relies on collective party branding rather than individual cults of personality. Unlike opposition parties that parade specific figures, the ANC maintains that the President is the singular face of the election. The newly vetted candidates must now hit the ground running, proving to angry and fatigued voters that their qualifications can translate into functioning taps, maintained roads, and reliable refuse collection.
