PRETORIA, Gauteng — The African National Congress (ANC) has secured a vital Constitutional Court victory against the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), a ruling that offers significant relief ahead of the November 4 elections. However, this legal triumph is overshadowed by a rapidly fractured alliance with key partners and a disturbing surge in political violence that threatens the party’s electoral momentum.
Political analyst Professor Sethulego Matebesi noted that the judgment was a desperately needed win not just for the ANC, but for the country’s political stability. The ruling forces the IEC to include the contested candidates on the ballot. The victory also alleviates some political heat on ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula, who faced intense criticism and calls for his resignation over allegations that his office bungled the electoral process. Despite the court ruling, Matebesi warned that the “negative cobwebs” of the controversy have already dispersed, meaning the pressure on Mbalula and the party’s narrative management will persist beyond election day.
Addressing the internal dynamics, Matebesi emphasized that the ANC’s top leadership is expected to rally around Mbalula to protect him from internal opponents. He cautioned that any National Executive Committee (NEC) member publicly attacking Mbalula would effectively be campaigning against the ANC itself. With the party already “bleeding” and facing unprecedented friction within its tripartite alliance, public infighting could be disastrous for their electoral prospects.
The political landscape is further marred by severe and tragic violence. Recently, two ANC members were shot dead and two others seriously wounded while campaigning in Ugu on the KwaZulu-Natal South Coast. This follows an incident earlier in the week where four ANC members were shot in Ekurhuleni on the East Rand.
Highlighting the scourge of political killings, statistics reveal a grim and persistent trend: 42 cases were reported between 2015 and 2019; 30 people were killed in the 2021 local government election year; 40 murders occurred in 2022; 33 murders took place in the 2024 national election year; and 31 people were killed in 2025.
Referencing the Madanga Commission and its recommendations, Matebesi urged a return to foundational values. He stated that the democracy fought for by Nelson Mandela is not built on murder and intimidation. He stressed the need to cultivate a culture of respect for humanity in homes and schools, urging citizens to settle scores through the ballot, not the bullet.
Compounding the ANC’s challenges is the visible collapse of its relationship with alliance partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). Tensions reached a boiling point at a recent Cosatu congress, where ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe departed the gathering without delivering his message of support. Furthermore, the SACP has made the historic decision not to entirely back the ANC, marking a first for the alliance and resulting in visible friction between members of the two organizations.
Matebesi predicts that while behind-the-scenes meetings may occur before the elections, the alliance partners will ultimately need to return to the drawing board after the polls close to repair their fractured relationship and lay their differences to rest.
