FREE STATE — The tragic murder of Democratic Alliance (DA) Ward 14 candidate Thulani Mbana has once again brought the severe issue of political killings in South Africa to the forefront of national concern. The fatal shooting in the Free State is part of a broader, alarming trend of election-related violence that has claimed hundreds of lives over the past decade and a half, marking a critical challenge for the country’s democracy.
According to a spokesperson for the Free State police, a murder case has been officially registered following the incident at Taylor Park in Zamdela, Sasolburg. The spokesperson detailed that late last night, two unknown males approached Mbana at his residence. One of the suspects allegedly drew a firearm and shot the DA candidate multiple times at close range before both men fled the scene on foot. Mbana sustained fatal gunshot wounds and was pronounced dead at the scene.
A Decade of Political Violence
Mbana’s death is not an isolated incident, but rather a reflection of a persistent national crisis. Comprehensive data indicates that the country has recorded 203 political killings between 2010 and October 2026. These targeted assassinations have affected members across 12 different political parties, as well as individuals with no known political affiliation.
The African National Congress (ANC) has been the most severely affected, accounting for approximately 60% of the victims, with 121 members killed during this 16-year period. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) follows with 11.3% (23 victims), closely trailed by the National Freedom Party (NFP) at roughly 11%. Even newer political formations have not been spared; the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has already lost eight members to political violence in its short existence.
Motives and Institutional Responses
The motives behind these assassinations vary widely and are deeply complex. Investigations, including those conducted by the KwaZulu-Natal-based Mirana Commission, have attributed the violence to intra-party rivalries, inter-party conflicts, and issues related to governance, corruption, and whistleblowing. In response to the escalating crisis, a specialized political killings task team has been established to track and combat the phenomenon.
Alarming 2026 Election Spikes
Historical data shows a consistent spike in political violence during the six months leading up to elections, with local government elections historically posing a high risk. However, the current electoral cycle has seen a pronounced and dangerous escalation.
In the 2026 local government election period, 24 political killings have been recorded, a stark increase from the six recorded during the corresponding 2021 period. Furthermore, the first voter registration weekend in June 2026 was noted as being particularly deadly, highlighting the immediate threats faced by political participants.
Highlighting the severity of the crisis on an international scale, Julian Rademeyer, a spokesperson for the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, has pointed to independent figures that suggest the actual scale of political violence and targeted assassinations may be even higher than domestic tracking currently indicates.
As authorities continue to investigate the murder of Thulani Mbana, the stark statistics serve as a grim reminder of the urgent need to protect political participants and safeguard the democratic process ahead of future elections.
