PRETORIA, Gauteng — South Africa is accelerating its El Niño preparedness this summer, mobilizing key agricultural stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of hotter and drier conditions. Following a high-level strategic meeting on Sunday, Presidential Envoy for Agriculture and Land Wandile Sihlobo provided a comprehensive update on the nation’s food security outlook, highlighting both robust current reserves and emerging vulnerabilities in rainfed crop production.
Assessing Readiness and Current Reserves
To evaluate the country’s readiness for the upcoming season, Sihlobo convened with the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), German input supplier Bayer, and major farmer and commodity associations, including Agri SA, TLU, and AFASA. The high-level discussions focused on two primary objectives: assessing current supply chains to ensure availability through mid-next year, and gathering ground-level intelligence from farmers regarding the upcoming climate conditions.
According to Sihlobo, South Africa is in a significantly stronger position than it was during the 2015 El Niño event. This resilience is largely due to favorable natural conditions and strong recent yields. Major dams across the country are currently over 90% full, and the nation has secured a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tons, contributing to an overall record grain production of 21.6 million tons. This creates a substantial buffer of stock. Furthermore, regional neighbors, including Zambia, are also reporting healthy supplies, which bolsters the broader Southern African food security net.
Production outlooks for irrigated crops, such as fruit and vegetables, remain positive going into next year. However, the immediate concern lies with higher temperatures and potential heatwaves, which could complicate the currently high soil moisture levels.
Climate Risks and Infrastructure Challenges
While a longer rainy summer period has provided excellent soil moisture—allowing many farmers to plant seeds early—medium to long-term risks remain. Meteorologists indicate that this El Niño may be limited to a single season rather than being multi-seasonal. However, if the drier conditions persist, food prices could become a concern by the middle of 2027.
The primary vulnerability lies in rainfed agriculture. Approximately 80% of grain, vegetable, oilseed, and sugarcane production relies on rainfall, leaving small-scale farmers and major grain-producing provinces, such as the Free State and the North West, highly exposed to climate shocks.
Compounding the climate risk is a critical infrastructure challenge. During the strategic meetings, industry stakeholders highlighted that approximately 30% of water is lost to leakages between dams and end-users. Sihlobo emphasized that investing in water infrastructure to reduce this wastage and improve irrigation efficiency will be vital for navigating drier periods.
Navigating US Trade Relations and Export Diversification
Beyond climate preparedness, the agricultural sector is also navigating complex international trade dynamics. Deteriorating trade relations with the United States have resulted in a 2.8 billion rand blow to exports in 2025. However, Sihlobo contextualized this loss within the broader scheme of South Africa’s expanding global agricultural footprint.
Despite the US friction, the overall farming sector saw exports increase by 10% year-on-year to a record $15.1 billion in the previous year. Exports specifically to the US only dropped by 3%, aided by a 90-day tariff pause and the timing of the citrus harvest.
In the first half of the current year, overall South African agricultural exports rose by 11% from a higher base, reaching $7.8 billion. While US exports remain down on a year-on-year basis, they saw a strong 56% quarter-on-quarter increase from Q1 to Q2.
Currently, South African agricultural products face US tariffs of around 12.5%, a reduction from the 30% faced last year. While competitors like Chile, Peru, and Australia face lower tariffs of approximately 10%, Sihlobo noted that South African producers have still managed to remain competitive.
The current tariff environment disproportionately affects specific regions and commodities: the Western Cape (table grapes, wine, and ostrich products), Mpumalanga (nuts), and the Northern Cape (raisins).
A Strategy for Global Diversification
Despite the challenges in the American market, the US accounts for only about 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports. To insulate the sector from future tariff shocks and geopolitical friction, the national strategy is heavily focused on economic diplomacy and market diversification.
Sihlobo highlighted that South Africa is actively deepening its access to the Middle East, Asia, the broader African continent, Europe, and the UK, where healthy export growth has already been recorded. The long-term goal is to fix diplomatic and trade relations with the US while simultaneously ensuring that South African businesses have the choice and access to thrive in diverse global markets.
