GAUTENG – Ahead of the November 4 local government elections, South Africa’s political landscape is rapidly evolving as multiple parties, including the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), the African National Congress (ANC), and emerging political movements, officially launch their election manifestos. Political analyst Professor Kedibone Phago provides critical insights into the strategic diversification, coalition dynamics, and internal governance challenges that will define voter sentiment in the upcoming municipal race.
The FF+ recently unveiled its political manifesto, with party leader Dr. Corné Mulder emphasizing a strategic push into diverse communities and areas where the party has not historically enjoyed strong support. Professor Phago noted that this diversification is a crucial strategy for any political institution in South Africa. He highlighted that the country’s founding constitution champions diversity, and by engaging with varied cultures, identities, and communities, the FF+ can better reposition itself, particularly as the ANC experiences a decline in its traditional support base.
However, the FF+ has explicitly ruled out forming coalition partnerships with the MK Party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC). Professor Phago suggested this stance likely stems from ideological divides, as the FF+ leans toward right-wing, pro-market, and capital-focused policies, contrasting sharply with the leftist orientations of the other parties. Nevertheless, he argued that political maturity requires parties to find ways to collaborate in the best interest of citizens, regardless of ideological differences. He cited the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) as a precedent, demonstrating that differing political viewpoints can successfully converge at the governance level to benefit South Africans.
Conversely, the ANC faces mounting internal and legal challenges as it campaigns for what it describes as “one last chance” from voters. The party is currently involved in electoral court disputes over candidate list submissions with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). Additionally, ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) member Andile Lungisa has taken the party and its Secretary-General to court, alleging he was unfairly omitted from the election list. Compounding these issues, a circulating video allegedly shows the ANC’s Minister of Water and Sanitation swearing at a community member.
Professor Phago described the ANC’s situation as “pouring, not just raining,” pointing to severe leadership and governance disarray. He warned that the party’s inability to discipline its members or adhere to administrative due dates for election submissions indicates a state of complete organizational disarray. With key voter demographics and traditional allies reportedly looking the other way, Professor Phago assessed that the ANC faces one of its toughest local government elections and has significant work to do to survive the upcoming polls.
Meanwhile, the MK Party is also navigating internal friction. Members recently marched in Durban to protest alleged tampering with the party’s candidate list, following the removal of an initial male candidate 12 days after being elected. Despite these challenges, Professor Phago observed that the MK Party, being a newer political formation, has demonstrated notable resilience in recent national, provincial, and by-elections. He noted that the party’s identity remains heavily centered around former President Jacob Zuma, and his active campaigning is expected to consolidate voter confidence and mitigate any internal doubts, as the party’s electoral fortunes largely center on his persona.
Other parties, including Build One South Africa (BOSA) and the United Democratic Movement (UDM), have also launched their local government election manifestos across different regions. Professor Phago cautioned that while larger parties dominate the headlines, it is the smaller political parties that face the greatest risk, as historical precedents show that minor parties often struggle to gain electoral traction. As the MK Party approaches its first local government election, observers will be closely monitoring whether internal leadership changes and candidate list instability will impact its overall electoral performance.
