PRETORIA, GAUTENG — Recent South Africa migration data has clarified a major demographic misconception, revealing that internal movement from Limpopo is the primary engine behind Gauteng population growth, rather than an influx of foreign nationals. During a parliamentary symposium on migration, Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke utilized three decades of census information to separate factual demographic shifts from public speculation.
The insights were shared as Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) celebrates 30 years of democratic census-taking, offering a critical look at how internal and cross-border movements are reshaping the nation’s social and economic landscape.
Demographic Drivers: Fertility, Longevity, and Migration
Maluleke explained that the growth of any nation’s population is dictated by three primary factors: fertility rates, increased life expectancy, and migration.
When examining international migration, South Africa’s figures align closely with global standards. Worldwide, migrant populations typically constitute about 4% of a country’s total residents. In South Africa, the foreign-born population was recorded at 2.67% during the 1996 census, rose to approximately 3% in 2001, peaked at nearly 5% in 2011, and settled at 3.9% (roughly 4%) in the 2022 census.
Provincial Population Shifts: Limpopo and the Western Cape
While international migration garners significant public attention, intra-national migration and fertility rates play a much larger role in provincial demographics. Maluleke noted that the Eastern Cape and Limpopo boast the highest fertility rates in the country, with Limpopo sitting far above the national average. Conversely, the Western Cape and several other provinces record fertility rates below the national average.
Addressing the Western Cape, Maluleke clarified that its population expansion is driven by an equal proportion of internal migrants from the Eastern Cape and international migrants.
However, the most significant clarification surrounded Gauteng. While it is true that 50% of all international migrants entering South Africa choose Gauteng as their destination, the absolute largest contributor to the province’s overall population is actually internal migrants from Limpopo, not foreign nationals.
Breaking Down the Foreign-Born Population
The 2022 census recorded 2.4 million people living in South Africa who were born outside the country. Maluleke provided a precise geographic breakdown of this demographic:
- Zimbabwe: Accounts for 48.3% of the foreign-born population (approximately 1 million people).
- Mozambique: Approximately 400,000 residents.
- United Kingdom: Around 277,000 residents.
- Malawi: 198,000 residents.
The top ten countries of origin are heavily dominated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, including Lesotho, Botswana, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria.
Migrants from further afield, such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Somalia, make up much smaller fractions of the population, generally ranging between 15,000 and 20,000 individuals per country. Maluleke also referenced the 2022/2023 Income and Expenditure Survey, a sample survey that indicated about 3.5 million foreign-born individuals—a slightly higher figure expected from sample-based extrapolations.
To illustrate the gap between public perception and statistical reality, Maluleke cited a recent gathering of 30,000 Malawian nationals. While public observers assumed this proved the community was vastly undercounted, the total recorded Malawian population in the entire country was only 198,000.
The Reality of Undocumented Migration and Service Delivery
The broadcast was momentarily interrupted by live footage from the Free State, where officials were seen arresting a foreign national. The man protested, stating he was being beaten in front of his wife and children despite handing over his paperwork, highlighting the ongoing public tension surrounding immigration enforcement.
Despite such real-world friction, Maluleke firmly stated that Stats SA does not track or ask whether migrants are documented or undocumented. He emphasized that official statistics are strictly utilized for long-term planning and service delivery, not for law enforcement.
“When one switches on a light on the wall, it doesn’t first ask if they are here documented or undocumented. It’s about services,” Maluleke explained. “When they want to drink water, water doesn’t ask them that question.”
He warned that attempting to track legal status would result in undocumented individuals hiding from enumerators, ultimately leading to inaccurate data that would misinform national planning for years to come.
Leveraging Official Statistics for National Planning
Concluding his address, the Statistician-General stressed that the true value of official statistics lies in long-term planning. This data is essential for providing public services, ensuring economic sustainability, and keeping the cost of goods affordable through accurate production metrics.
Beyond the decennial census, Stats SA releases crucial economic indicators, including mid-year population estimates (published annually after July 1), quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, the quarterly labor force survey, and the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Maluleke urged the public, business leaders, and policymakers to rely on these verified, ground-collected metrics. He cautioned that many figures currently circulating in the public domain regarding migration are “blown out of proportion” and lack factual backing, emphasizing that evidence-based discussions are vital for fostering social cohesion and effective governance.