JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — With just over a week remaining until the South African local government elections, political parties are intensifying their campaigns as the competition for control of key metropolitan areas reaches a fever pitch. As varying poll predictions add to the uncertainty, experts are urging voters and analysts alike to look beyond the headlines and understand the complex dynamics shaping these crucial metro battles.
Local government analyst and Hlaziya Solutions director Paul Berkowitz notes that while public polling is a useful tool, it must be interpreted with caution. He explains that national polls often construct their broader picture from a minority of respondents specifically chosen for major metros, utilizing varying methodologies and sample sizes. Furthermore, because eligible voters do not always turn out to cast their ballots, these surveys are best viewed as a “photograph at one point in time” rather than a definitive forecast. However, the top four parties—the ANC, the DA, the MK party, and the EFF—remain consistent within a narrow range across most major surveys.
Despite the limitations of polling, Berkowitz emphasizes that the broad trends confirm one undeniable reality: South Africa is firmly in “coalition country.” No single party is projected to secure an outright majority in the major metros. This dynamic is already influencing campaign strategies. For instance, the DA in Johannesburg is actively pushing for a mandate based on a minimum vote threshold, while other parties are campaigning on the simple expectation of post-election coalition negotiations.
A major blind spot in many national and metro polls is the performance of smaller political parties. Berkowitz points out that technical constraints, such as sample sizes and margins of error, often cause parties outside the top four to be excluded from polling data due to the high costs of achieving statistical accuracy.
Yet, their impact on the ground is profound. Looking at the 2021 elections, coalitions in Johannesburg, eThekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay involved between six and ten parties. In Johannesburg alone, at least ten parties secured just a single council seat. With voter turnout potentially dropping even lower than the already subdued 2021 levels, the vote could become increasingly fractured, giving these overlooked small parties significant leverage in future coalitions.
The reliability of internal party polling also faces scrutiny. Berkowitz warns of an inherent risk of internal bias, noting that historically, polls commissioned by major parties like the ANC and the DA almost always favor the commissioning organization. Analysts are advised to apply a “bias premium” when evaluating these internal numbers to account for subconscious pressures to present the client in the most favorable light.
As the elections draw just nine days away, the influence of these polls on actual campaign behavior remains limited. While party leaders might occasionally believe their own favorable headlines or ignore unpleasant facts, the decentralized nature of local government campaigns means that ground forces often dictate the real impact. Big and medium parties control national campaigns, but they are not always fully aware of the localized impact of their ground operations.
With little time or funding left to pivot, Berkowitz concludes that most political parties will stick to their original campaign plans, setting the stage for a highly contested, complex, and coalition-dependent electoral outcome.
