NEW YORK, N.Y. — For five decades, Iran wielded the Strait of Hormuz as an economic weapon, warning oil-exporting neighbors: “You better behave, or we will close the strait.” Now, former Trump deputy national security advisor KT McFarland says that era of coercion is definitively over, declaring that Tehran has “overplayed its hand” as alternative energy corridors and overwhelming American naval power strip the regime of its most potent geopolitical tool.
McFarland’s assessment comes at a moment when roughly 9 million barrels of crude oil still pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day—nearly half the volume seen before the current conflict—making the waterway’s security one of the most consequential issues in the global economy. Yet the longtime national security strategist insists the threat landscape has fundamentally transformed in Washington’s favor.
The Pipeline Bypass That Broke Tehran’s Bargaining Chip
According to McFarland, neighboring oil-exporting nations spent years bending to Iranian demands out of fear that the strait would be sealed off, cutting them off from international markets. That dynamic, she explained, has now been permanently disrupted. Regional producers are increasingly routing shipments through overland pipelines that bypass the waterway entirely, while new international buyers are entering the market and absorbing supply. The result: Iran’s ability to hold global energy hostage has evaporated.
Oil Supply Security Now Outweighs Nuclear Fears
McFarland stressed that the single greatest economic danger facing the world is not a kinetic war or even Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon—though both remain serious concerns—but rather a disruption in oil supplies. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open and under secure control, she argued, inflation can be kept in check. She further noted that the United States occupies a far more resilient economic position than either Europe or Asia, thanks in large part to America’s status as one of the planet’s largest oil producers.
Trump Claims “Total Control” as Iran’s Economy Free-Falls
President Trump has publicly asserted that the United States currently holds “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, crediting what he described as an “unbelievable” Navy. The President warned that if Iran attempts any provocation, they “will get blown away,” while emphasizing that the nation remains in a strong strategic posture.
Trump also pointed to a domestic economic backdrop he called “fantastic,” citing 79 stock market records set in a short period, record employment numbers, and rapidly falling consumer prices.
Meanwhile, Iran’s internal situation tells a starkly different story. The country is battling an estimated 300 percent inflation rate. Its government is reportedly unable to pay its military personnel, and soldiers are abandoning their posts in growing numbers.
Domestic Politics: McFarland Takes Aim at Far-Left Spending
Beyond foreign policy, McFarland turned her attention to the U.S. political landscape, slamming what she called a “Democrat communist agenda” that she estimates would add trillions of dollars in costs over the next ten years. Her prescribed response was unconventional: rather than shouting down opponents, she urged conservatives to simply let far-left politicians speak, arguing that common-sense Americans will recognize the extremism on their own and vote accordingly.
She drew a direct comparison to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), suggesting that mainstream Democratic candidates risk being swept aside by voters in the same fashion. Recent polling data, McFarland noted, already shows New Yorkers rejecting those progressive platforms.
A New Geopolitical Reality
The convergence of Iran’s economic collapse, military attrition, and the rise of alternative energy infrastructure signals a decisive shift in the balance of power across the Middle East. Where Tehran once dictated terms to an entire region through the threat of closing a single waterway, McFarland concludes that the leverage is gone for good—and the world’s energy markets are better positioned to withstand any remaining Iranian brinkmanship.
