ANKARA, TURKEY — President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to the NATO alliance, questioning the value of the 77-year-old military pact just moments after touching down in Turkey for the summit. The diplomatic friction coincides with a major economic escalation, as the United States officially revoked the license allowing Iran to sell its oil on the global market, triggering a surge in energy prices and driving investors toward the safety of the U.S. dollar.
Following the Treasury’s announcement, light sweet crude jumped to approximately $72 per barrel, up from $68 the previous day, while Brent crude hit $75.75. The spike in oil prices is acting as a catalyst for inflation fears, prompting a rush into the U.S. dollar as a hedge against major currencies in the aftermarket.
Diplomatic Clashes at the NATO Summit
Upon arriving in Ankara, where he was welcomed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump did not mince words regarding his dissatisfaction with the alliance. He specifically called out Italy, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Spain for refusing to support recent U.S. military operations in Iran.
Expressing his frustration, the President stated he was “very disappointed” with NATO. He suggested his attendance at the Turkish summit was almost conditional, noting that if the event weren’t hosted by his “very strong” friend Erdoğan, he might have skipped it entirely.
Trump described his stance as a test of the alliance’s loyalty. “I was testing to see whether or not they’d be there because I’ve long said that we help them, but I’m not sure that they’d help us,” Trump explained, pointing out that multiple European nations “turned us down.” He questioned why the U.S. continues to spend “hundreds of billions of dollars” protecting allies who are not present to reciprocate.
The rhetoric has naturally sparked debates over whether the U.S. might exit the 32-nation defensive pact, which was established after World War II to counter Nazi aggression. Trump has a documented history of abandoning international agreements he deems unfavorable, having withdrawn from the Paris Climate Accord in 2017, the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and NAFTA in early 2020.
Analyzing the Alliance’s True Strength
Despite the fiery rhetoric, geopolitical experts suggest an actual U.S. withdrawal is highly improbable. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, provided context to the President’s negotiating style. Bremmer noted that while Trump exited NAFTA, he immediately replaced it with the stronger USMCA, and despite leaving the original Iran nuclear deal, his administration is currently seeking a new agreement.
According to Bremmer, the underlying need for security and alliances remains intact. Rather than weakening, Bremmer argued the alliance is arguably more robust than it was a decade ago. European defense spending has increased significantly—a trend accelerated by Trump’s initial pressure, the Russian invasion of Ukraine under the Biden administration, and the subsequent European assumption of Ukraine’s financial backing.
Bremmer highlighted that European taxpayers are now fully funding the Ukrainian defense effort, noting that local forces are performing exceptionally well and “increasingly look like a winner.” Furthermore, NATO has expanded to include Finland, bringing a massive shared border with Russia into the alliance, alongside more advanced weapons systems and a reduced financial burden on the United States.
Regarding the Iran conflict, Bremmer acknowledged the war proved expensive and difficult, noting that Trump did not initially ask European allies to join the military action. However, when the operation stalled, Trump sought their support and was rebuffed, leaving him visibly frustrated.
The Turkey F-35 Dilemma and Israeli Pushback
Bremmer suggested Trump’s current grievances are largely directed at specific European leaders he dislikes. With U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer having recently resigned and French President Emmanuel Macron facing the end of his term in 2027, Trump may be waiting for more favorable counterparts.
Conversely, Trump has been highly amenable to Turkish President Erdoğan. Ankara remains a NATO member in good standing, and Trump recently moved to lift 2020-era sanctions on Turkey while expressing interest in selling them F-35 fighter jets.
The potential F-35 sale to Turkey has deeply alarmed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu strongly cautioned against arming a government he described as being “infected by the Muslim Brotherhood,” an extremist faction he claims harbors deep animosity toward the United States.
“For a regime infected by the Muslim Brotherhood, an extreme movement that hates America and chants death to America from that side of the spectrum, I don’t think they should be given F-35s or the engines for their fighter jets,” Netanyahu stated. He warned that providing the jets would destabilize the Middle East’s power balance, a stability he argued is currently secured by Israeli air superiority and the American military posture. Congress is also expected to weigh in on the controversial sale.
Strait of Hormuz Escalation and the Economic Squeeze
The revocation of Iran’s oil export licenses serves as a direct punitive measure for escalating maritime hostilities. Over the past 24 hours, Iranian forces fired upon three separate vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting a Saudi ship, a Saudi oil tanker, and a Qatari LNG tanker. Crucially, these attacks occurred in the Omani shipping route, bypassing the Iranian-controlled corridors where Tehran typically extracts tolls and exercises leverage.
Bremmer recalled that the last time Iran attacked vessels in the Omani route, the U.S. responded with military strikes along the Iranian coastline. However, those strikes failed to deter future aggression.
This time, with oil prices relatively stable around $70, Washington is opting for an economic strategy. By removing sanctions waivers, the U.S. is directly targeting Iran’s financial lifeline. This punitive shift highlights the collapse of a recent bilateral memorandum, which had promised a ceasefire and guaranteed the unhindered passage of commercial ships through the Strait—a promise that has now been blatantly violated by the attacks on commercial vessels.