South Africa is witnessing a notable increase in maritime traffic as global shipping companies divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope due to ongoing disruptions in key Middle East trade routes caused by the prolonged US-Israel led war with Iran. The conflict has upended air and shipping lanes, significantly hampering the flow of food, commodities, and especially oil. Although a two-week truce is currently in effect, the ripple effects on logistics persist.
A spokesperson for logistics company GoReefers described the immediate impact on perishable cargo: “Everything that was on the water just couldn’t go to the Middle East suddenly. So everybody, all the lines, they had no option. They couldn’t get into the Middle East. So they discharged the cargo mostly in India and in Oman.”
Africa’s ports have long been positioned as emerging strategic alternatives as global focus shifts away from traditional routes involving Russia and the Middle East. However, the rerouting has driven up maritime costs, exacerbated by constrained oil supplies and rising diesel prices. “Shipping to the rest of the world has also been severely impacted because of the diesel price. So there’s fuel surcharge charges and some places war risk, but mostly it’s a fuel surcharge charge and that’s only going to get worse,” the GoReefers spokesperson added.
South Africa exports approximately 1.6 to 1.7 million tons of chrome products per year from southern Africa directly to China, with additional sales to business partners in the ferrochrome industry in Inner Mongolia. Shipping lines are adapting by routing around the southern tip of Africa, where the Cape of Good Hope has emerged as a strategic chokepoint.
A port industry spokesperson noted increased activity but tempered expectations for cargo growth: “We have seen more vessel calls for bunkering, for refueling, for crew changes, for other ancillary services, but we’ve not really seen a significant increase in the cargo handled at South African shores.”
If the situation continues, the continent could see short-term benefits from the shifting trade patterns, including opportunities described as a potential “windfall.” Developments in freight villages, dry ports, and multimodal hubs are underway across South Africa and broader Africa to capitalize on this. Supply chain disruptions in recent years — including the Suez Canal blockage, the Red Sea crisis, and now issues around the Strait of Hormuz — have underscored the need for diversified routes.
However, the African Union and the African Development Bank have cautioned that any gains may prove short-lived. The organizations warned that the conflict threatens to push up the cost of living across the continent and could lead to broader economic challenges.
“The wave of global crises continuing to batter African economies is yet another signal that the continent must evolve from simply managing shocks to building long-term resilience,” the joint perspective emphasized. While the Middle East conflict may offer short-term opportunities for some logistics and bunkering services, the potential damage to African economies could extend for years.
This rerouting highlights both the vulnerabilities and adaptive potential in global trade, with South African ports seeing modest upticks in supporting services even as overall cargo volumes through local shores remain largely unchanged for now.