The Democratic Alliance (DA) has achieved a historic political milestone, capturing its first-ever victory in a fully township-based ward during the Evaton West by-election in Emfuleni, Gauteng. Elections analyst Wayne Sussman described the outcome as “sensational,” emphasizing that the area has traditionally served as an African National Congress (ANC) stronghold.
The result was decided by the slimmest of margins—approximately eight to nine votes. Sussman explained that while the ANC secured three of the ward’s four voting districts, the DA’s decisive advantage came from a single voting district where ANC support plummeted from above 50% to merely 21%. In that same area, both the DA and the Patriotic Alliance gained substantial ground, preventing the ANC from recovering its deficit.
“This is an historic result for the Democratic Alliance. They’ve never ever won a township ward where the population is overwhelmingly black. This is a breakthrough for them,” Sussman noted.
Analysts point to a potential “Midvaal effect,” wherein voters in adjacent municipalities observe perceived governance improvements under DA administration in Midvaal Local Municipality and adjust their political preferences. However, Sussman clarified that Evaton West lies closer to Johannesburg and Orange Farm than to Midvaal, suggesting the political ripple effects could extend into South Africa’s economic hub.
Local leadership also played a pivotal role. Sussman highlighted Kingsol Chabalala, the DA’s mayoral candidate and a seasoned provincial legislator with a record of advocating for Emfuleni communities, as instrumental in the party’s grassroots outreach and visibility during the campaign.
The outcome signals mounting pressure for both the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters. According to Sussman, the ANC is experiencing vote erosion across the ideological spectrum—losing supporters to right-leaning parties such as the DA and PA, while also facing challenges from left-aligned breakaway groups including the African Economic Freedom Party (AEF) and the South African Communist Party. The EFF similarly registered a sharp decline in its ward-level support.
Conversely, the ANC posted a robust performance in a Mahikeng ward within the North West province, boosting its vote share from 58% to 73%. In that contest, the EFF’s support dropped from 29% to 20%, and the United Christian Democratic Party captured roughly 7% of the ballot. Yet Sussman raised a cautionary note: voter participation in the Mabatu voting district within that ward stood at just 15%, markedly lower than the by-election’s overall 42% turnout and a decline from the 39% recorded in 2021.
“These results underscore the volatile and fragmented nature of the electorate heading into local government elections,” Sussman observed. “The ANC, particularly after the Gauteng result, is on the back foot now and needs to find great candidates which can connect with communities, find credible mayoral candidates which can turn the negative sentiment towards the party in Gauteng and in many other parts of the country around. This is a key, key few weeks for them.”
These electoral developments occur against a backdrop of deepening concern over municipal sustainability. The Standing Committee on Public Accounts recently warned that numerous municipalities nationwide face financial unviability—a reality with immediate implications for service delivery, infrastructure upkeep, and local economic stability. South Africa comprises eight metropolitan municipalities and 205 local municipalities in total.
In response, the ANC’s National Executive Committee has reportedly elevated local government reform to its primary strategic priority. This shift follows internal accountability measures, including the removal of a cabinet minister from her portfolio and her subsequent resignation from parliamentary and party leadership roles.
Compounding municipal challenges, Johannesburg residents are now facing substantial tariff increases. Sussman acknowledged the difficulty of the situation, noting that while the hikes are “objectionable,” municipalities confront a difficult balance: addressing infrastructure deficits and revenue shortfalls now, or risking more drastic measures later. He stressed that enhancing rates collection and ensuring transparent, corruption-free expenditure remain essential to restoring municipal functionality and public confidence.
Additional context emerged from recent SCOPA hearings involving Msunduzi Municipality—the provincial capital of KwaZulu-Natal and the second-most populous municipality in the province—where 16 municipal representatives traveled to Cape Town, though only five addressed the committee. Sussman questioned the fiscal prudence of such decisions amid widespread municipal budget constraints.
As South Africa moves closer to its local government elections, these by-election outcomes highlight both the opportunities and imperatives facing political parties: to present credible leadership, deliver measurable service improvements, and rebuild trust with voters in communities nationwide.