Applications for legal firearm ownership in South Africa have climbed dramatically, with official police data revealing a near-70% increase over a six-year span. Between the 2018/19 and 2024/25 financial years, new licence submissions grew from 99,000 to 167,000, according to South African Police Service (SAPS) annual reports. Parallel to this, competency assessment requests—required before licence approval—rose from 154,000 to 193,000.
The upward trend coincides with ongoing national challenges related to violent crime, including a daily average exceeding 70 murders. It also arrives amid a polarized discussion: does expanding lawful civilian gun ownership strengthen personal security, or does it heighten the potential for firearm-related harm?
Three subject-matter specialists offered perspectives on the developing situation.
Concerns Over Proliferation and Oversight
Dr. Stanley Maphosa, Executive Director of Gun Free South Africa, flagged multiple drivers behind the application surge, including public anxiety, anticipated regulatory changes, and growing interest from hunters, sport shooters, private security entities, and private citizens. He also pointed to a notable drop in licence renewals around 2022, when roughly 75% of existing licences were not renewed.
“The central question is whether increasing firearm numbers will enhance public safety,” Maphosa stated. “More guns in circulation raise risks of diversion, corruption, theft, and loss—endangering those who never sought a licence in the first place.” He cited organizational research indicating that 22 firearms go missing every day from civilian sources, including private owners and security firms. “Illegal weapons don’t appear out of thin air,” he added. “They often originate in the legal market.”
Loss of Trust in State Protection
Paul Oxley, Chairman of Gun Owners South Africa, framed the application spike as a rational response to eroded confidence in state-led security. Referencing testimony from the Mlanga Commission of Inquiry alleging that 70% of SAPS personnel in KwaZulu-Natal are implicated in corruption, Oxley argued citizens feel compelled to take protection into their own hands.
“We’re all on our own here,” he said. “When the institution tasked with public safety is perceived as ineffective, what alternatives do people have?” Oxley highlighted a recent self-defence training event in Cape Town hosted by Girls on Fire, an affiliated group, which brought together 28 women—including members of the provincial legislature—to practice threat recognition, de-escalation tactics, and responsible firearm use as a last resort.
He shifted focus to state-controlled weaponry, contending that leakage from official armories poses a greater risk than regulated civilian ownership. Oxley referenced the case of Colonel Chris Prinsloo, who allegedly moved approximately 2,500 firearms from police stockpiles to the Western Cape for distribution to criminal networks. Prinsloo avoided incarceration after providing testimony for the state, Oxley noted, adding that other alleged participants in the operation have not faced prosecution.
Balancing Rights, Risks, and Responsibility
Professor Nirmala Gopal, a criminologist with the University of KwaZulu-Natal’s Criminology and Forensic Studies department, said the rise in applications aligns with prevailing public fear and crime data. She acknowledged a procedural advantage: legally registered firearms could assist investigations when weapons are used unlawfully. Yet she cautioned that expanding the pool of firearms in a nation already experiencing elevated gun violence could correlate with increased firearm-enabled offences.
Gopal referenced recent disclosures by the Western Cape provincial police commissioner, who reported that of roughly 35,000 licensed firearms registered to individuals who have since passed away over a five-year period, only between 7,000 and 9,000 have been recovered by authorities. The whereabouts of the remainder remain unclear. “This raises serious questions about our capacity to track and secure weapons,” she said, linking the gap to broader institutional challenges in law enforcement.
Describing the dynamic as a “revolving door,” Gopal stressed the importance of rigorous vetting for licence applicants and ongoing oversight of how legal owners store and maintain their firearms. She advocated for inclusive dialogue among policymakers, law enforcement, civil society, and the public to explore non-violent approaches to conflict resolution and reinforce the state’s constitutional duty to protect citizens.
Shared Ground on System Integrity
While perspectives on civilian gun access remain divided, all three experts underscored the need for greater transparency, accountability, and enforcement within the firearms licensing framework. Strengthening the national registry, curbing corruption in application processing, and improving mechanisms to recover unaccounted weapons emerged as common priorities—regardless of one’s stance on expanding or restricting lawful ownership.
As application volumes continue to rise, the national conversation around safety, rights, and responsibility shows no sign of abating.