JOHANNESBURG, GAUTENG — The political landscape ahead of the 2026 local government elections is experiencing a seismic shift following the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (NEHAWU) decision to officially endorse the South African Communist Party (SACP). According to political experts, this landmark move, solidified at the union’s 13th National Congress, could catalyze a broader exodus of Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) affiliates away from the tripartite alliance as the November 4 polls approach.
NEHAWU has not only resolved to back the SACP but has also declared its intention to persuade the broader Cosatu federation to follow suit. Political analyst Professor Zamokuhle Mbandlwa notes that this development represents a massive fracture in the labor movement’s traditional voting patterns, signaling a concerted effort by public sector unions to forge an independent, working-class socialist movement in response to the volatile post-2024 political environment.
Ideological Divides and the Vanguard of the Working Class
Professor Mbandlwa, who closely monitors the tripartite alliance, suggests that NEHAWU’s departure was not an isolated surprise but rather the beginning of a wider trend. He explains that the union is highlighting a fundamental ideological disconnect: while the African National Congress (ANC) operates as a broad umbrella body representing various societal classes—including the bourgeoisie—the SACP remains strictly focused on the working class, the poor, and the marginalized.
By framing the SACP as the true vanguard of the working class, NEHAWU is appealing directly to the consciousness of laborers who feel their interests are no longer being advanced from within the ANC government. Mbandlwa predicts that very few Cosatu unions will ultimately disagree with this assessment, potentially leading to a quiet but significant splitting of the federation.
Financial Grievances: The Catalyst for Union Defection
The driving force behind this political realignment is deeply rooted in unresolved financial grievances. For years, public sector workers have pushed for the full implementation of Resolution 1 of 2018—specifically clause 3.3, which mandates salary increases and a clear negotiating mandatum.
While the government has consistently cited a lack of funds to meet these salary increment demands, Mbandlwa points out a glaring contradiction that recently triggered union outrage. The state unexpectedly announced the allocation of more than 600 million to address illegal immigration. Because this funding was not originally budgeted for, unions view it as proof that state resources do exist, leaving workers feeling that the government is taking them for granted.
Compounding the frustration is a proposed 9.8% contribution increase on the medical aid of government employees. Mbandlwa describes this hike as a devastating blow to public servants, many of whom are already struggling to afford their medical schemes and access necessary support.
Alliance Friction and Presidential Pleas
The growing unrest has not gone unnoticed at the highest levels of the labor federation. Cosatu President Zingiswa Losi utilized the recent Congress to passionately plead for unity and defend the historic tripartite alliance. Despite these pleas, and accusations of flip-flopping within the leadership, the momentum appears to be shifting.
When asked how the ANC might react to the SACP’s independent electoral stance, Mbandlwa notes that the ruling party will likely offer the same response it has in the past. The ANC has previously attempted to convince the SACP to abandon its independent contestation, but those talks ultimately failed. With the decision now firmly entrenched, Mbandlwa believes it will be exceedingly difficult for the ANC to reverse the SACP’s course, especially as the Communist Party successfully mobilizes unions around the immediate, tangible cries of workers.
Electoral Math: The ANC’s Looming Decline
The electoral implications of this shift are profound, particularly for the ANC in metropolitan areas. Mbandlwa’s analysis is stark: the SACP’s independent run will not siphon votes from smaller opposition parties; rather, it will draw directly from the ANC’s traditional voter base.
This dynamic is further exacerbated by the presence of the MK Party, which was formed in 2023. Mbandlwa warns that the combined pressure from the SACP and the MK Party will cause the ANC’s support to decline significantly in the 2026 local government elections. Recent campaign trails, he notes, already indicate a worrying downward trend for the ruling party.
However, the analyst offers a crucial caveat regarding the unique nature of municipal polls. Unlike national or provincial elections, local government contests are heavily influenced by ward-level dynamics. Voters tend to base their decisions on the direct performance of their local councilors and the delivery of municipal services. Consequently, wards with highly effective, community-focused councilors may remain insulated from the broader national political shifts.
A Return to Grassroots Mobilization
Ultimately, Mbandlwa argues that the ANC faces a severe grassroots mobilization problem. Historically, the ANC did not win the backing of the South African people as a standalone political entity. Its successes were built on a vast network of allied structures, including the United Democratic Front (UDF), the SACP, student movements, and street committees.
Without the visible, on-the-ground presence of these allied structures championing the interests of the people, Mbandlwa concludes that the ANC will face a serious challenge in reconnecting with the communities it seeks to lead in the upcoming elections.