SOUTH AFRICA — The 2026 local government elections have witnessed a significant surge in voter turnout, with 12 million citizens casting their ballots by 5:00 p.m. on election day. According to Dr. Sithembile Mbete, Political Scientist and Executive Director of the Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI), this early figure represents approximately 41% of the 29 million registered voters and already matches the total turnout of the 2021 elections, indicating a strong mobilization of the electorate.
Turnout Projections and Historical Context
Dr. Mbete noted that the 2021 local government elections recorded the lowest turnout on record, with 12 million voters participating out of approximately 26 million registered voters, yielding a 45% to 46% turnout rate. In contrast, the 2016 elections saw 15 million voters out of 26 million registered, resulting in a 58% turnout.
Because the 5:00 p.m. figures only count those who had already cast their ballots and exclude those still in queues, the final numbers are expected to rise between 5:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Dr. Mbete projected that the final absolute number of voters could reach 15, 16, or 17 million. In percentage terms, this could push the turnout beyond the 55% mark and closer to 60% of the 29 million registered voters, which would be a highly significant achievement for the 2026 local government elections.
High-Stakes Competition and Regional Trends
The 2026 local government elections follow a massive boost in organic voter registration seen in both 2024 and 2026. This cycle is characterized by a highly competitive landscape, with approximately 530 political parties registered to contest. While this fragmentation presents administrative and management challenges, it underscores the high stakes of the contests.
Provinces leading in votes cast thus far align with the most competitive metropolitan areas: Gauteng (home to three metros, including the City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni), KwaZulu-Natal (led by the eThekwini metro), and the Western Cape (led by the City of Cape Town).
Intense Scrutiny of the IEC
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) is facing unprecedented scrutiny from political parties regarding the storage of materials, the safe custody of the electoral value chain, and the delayed counting of special votes. In response to demands to reveal material storage locations, the IEC declined, citing that the safe custody value chain had already been demonstrated.
Dr. Mbete attributes this intense focus on the IEC to a combination of factors: a general low-trust environment regarding state institutions and politicians, a high prevalence of misinformation and disinformation, and the high stakes of the current races. Political parties are applying additional scrutiny to ensure their processes are not compromised. Despite administrative issues in the 2024 elections, the IEC has implemented mitigation strategies and improved public communication. Dr. Mbete emphasized that for an election to be truly free and fair, it must be both substantively and perceptively viewed as such.
Institutional Responsibilities and Incidents
Dr. Mbete cautioned against focusing scrutiny solely on the IEC, urging the public and commentators to also evaluate the conduct of political parties. She highlighted an incident in Hillbrow where ballot materials were stolen after a presiding officer placed them in an unlocked guard house while only locking the school’s perimeter gate. The IEC applied consequence management by relieving the officer of their duties, but the incident raised broader questions about the requisite security for sensitive materials.
Additionally, IEC CEO Sy Mamabolo addressed an incident where a celebrity publicly revealed their vote, stating it is a breach of the Electoral Act that must be taken up by the South African Police Service (SAPS). Dr. Mbete clarified that the IEC does not write electoral legislation—such as the Constitutional Court ruling requiring citizens to vote at the station matching their registered residential address—but rather operates under the laws written and passed by parliamentarians.
Future Outlook: Consolidation vs. Fragmentation
Reflecting on the narrative of the 2026 local government elections, Dr. Mbete noted a potential shift from the past decade’s trend. For the last 10 years, the defining story has been frustration and disillusionment leading to low voter turnout. The critical question for this cycle is whether frustration will instead mobilize citizens to vote, bucking the historical trend.
Furthermore, with the African National Congress (ANC) having lost its previous dominance and 530 parties contesting, Dr. Mbete is watching for voter consolidation. The key determinant will be whether the electorate responds to the overwhelming number of choices by consolidating their votes behind a core group of 10 to 13 parties, or the 18 parties currently represented in the National Assembly, rather than分散ing their votes among new entrants.
