Tensions in the US-Iran conflict have intensified, with both sides locked in a standoff over a US naval blockade affecting Iranian ports and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has demanded the lifting of the blockade to reopen the strategic waterway, while President Donald Trump has stated that the measures will remain in place until a comprehensive deal is reached.
In a recent discussion, Dov Zakheim, former US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, analyzed the impasse. He noted that Iran seeks an end to the American blockade of its ports in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz for trade. Trump, however, has insisted the blockade stays until negotiations conclude successfully.
Zakheim highlighted President Trump’s strong aversion to being perceived as a “loser,” suggesting he would not back down in a way that allows Iran to claim victory, as it did in past dealings. “He simply will not back off,” Zakheim said, adding that while oil prices and stock markets may fluctuate with any closure or reopening, Trump prioritizes avoiding the appearance of weakness. He pointed out that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has indicated the US has significant additional capabilities if ordered.
The analyst described the situation as a clash between a “stubborn Iranian regime that’s cornered” and a “very stubborn president of the United States that hates to lose.” Zakheim referenced the term “TACO” — Trump Always Chickens Out — used by critics, arguing that Trump is aware of it and unlikely to relent despite domestic opposition to the conflict and political attacks from Democrats ahead of elections. He predicted a possible prolonged impasse, as neither side appears ready to yield quickly.
Shifting to the nuclear issue, Iran’s deputy foreign minister stated that no enriched uranium will be transferred to America. This directly counters Trump’s claims that the US would obtain all the “nuclear dust” — referring to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles — as part of any agreement.
Zakheim noted broader US demands extending beyond enriched uranium to include limitations on Iranian missiles and proxies. He observed that the Iranian 10-point proposal appears to move in the opposite direction, with its Persian version reportedly allowing Iran to retain its enriched uranium. Public statements show divergence: Trump has suggested talks are progressing positively, while Iranian officials have indicated there is not even a formal negotiation underway.
A New York Times report, citing US intelligence assessments, indicates Iran likely retains access to around 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile stockpiles and about 60% of its missile launchers, underscoring Tehran’s remaining military capacity despite recent setbacks.
On potential third-party involvement, Zakheim mentioned that Pakistan is actively working to mediate. He also addressed suggestions that China could take custody of or downgrade Iran’s enriched uranium. He recalled past US offers during earlier negotiations — involving figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — that Iran had rejected. Zakheim emphasized that the US would not accept the uranium moving to countries it does not trust, creating another point of deadlock.
Despite the current stalemate on multiple fronts, including the blockade, enriched uranium, missiles, and proxies, Zakheim cautioned that surprises remain possible. “They speak secretly and they attack each other publicly,” he said, noting that announcements could still emerge by the end of the week or soon after, even if an impasse currently seems likely.
The upcoming talks, potentially scheduled for Wednesday, face uncertainty amid these entrenched positions. Both sides’ firmness raises questions about the cost of prolonged confrontation, including impacts on global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional stability.
