PRETORIA, Gauteng — The structural integrity of South Africa’s historic political coalition is facing a critical stress test ahead of the 2026 Local Government Elections. According to political analyst Professor Dirk Kotze, the growing operational and ideological divide between the ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP) threatens the very coherence of the tripartite alliance, just as the ruling party battles to reclaim lost voter trust in metropolitan areas.
The divergence is already visible on the campaign trail. While the ANC officially kicked off its electoral push in Diepsloot, the SACP is actively fielding its own candidates and tailoring its manifesto to working-class neighborhoods like Crossroads. Professor Dirk Kotze notes that this independent maneuvering stems from long-standing SACP frustrations. The communist party has consistently argued that the ANC only seeks engagement during election cycles, leaving the alliance council to operate merely at a secretariat level rather than convening high-level summit meetings between the three partner organizations.
This strategic split is compounded by a major blow to the SACP’s electoral viability: the stance of COSATU. Although the SACP has historically leaned on trade union backing, COSATU publicly reaffirmed its support for the ANC during the recent manifesto launch. Professor Kotze emphasized that this lack of public endorsement from COSATU, coupled with the SACP’s notably poor showings in recent by-elections, represents a severe setback for the communist party’s independent political ambitions.
Beyond electoral logistics, the rift is deeply ideological. Professor Kotze highlighted the SACP’s staunch opposition to the government’s increasing reliance on public-private partnerships, outsourcing, and private sector involvement. This directly clashes with President Ramaphosa’s core economic strategy, which heavily emphasizes private sector participation to drive infrastructure development. Consequently, the analyst argues, there is increasingly little practical common ground uniting the ANC and the SACP.
On the ground, where politics translates to daily realities like water outages, electricity failures, potholed roads, and youth unemployment, the ANC’s task is monumental. Professor Kotze pointed out that the ruling party’s current six-point local government agenda is not a new framework, closely mirroring the platforms presented in both the 2016 and 2021 elections. While President Ramaphosa has openly conceded the party’s recent failures in municipal service delivery and accepted responsibility for the crumbling infrastructure, the central challenge remains reversing a steady decline in voter support that began when the ANC lost control of major metros in 2016.
Making this turnaround even more difficult is the aggressive presence of the MK party. Drawing on the electoral shifts observed in 2024, Professor Kotze warned that the ANC’s previous voter losses were largely absorbed by the MK party. As the MK party gears up for the upcoming local polls, it is strategically positioned to siphon significant ANC support, particularly in eThekwini and broader KwaZulu-Natal regions, further squeezing the ruling party’s traditional base.
Ultimately, the 2026 local elections will serve as a definitive referendum on whether the ANC can arrest its municipal decline, and whether the tripartite alliance can survive its deepest operational and philosophical fractures in decades.
