In July, following relentless bursts of rainfall, flash floods covered pockets of Lagos, disrupting commerce and traffic in Nigeria’s commercial capital. Experts have found that the city now faces increased flood risk due to human-induced climate change. Other recent studies have identified another common factor exacerbating flooding risk in Lagos: rapid urbanization.
In a study published in June, for example, a team of researchers examined satellite images of Lekki, a densely populated Lagos district, from 2015 to 2025. Their analysis showed that vegetation cover in the neighborhood had decreased by 13% in the last 10 years, while water bodies had reduced by 6%. Meanwhile, within the same timeline, settlements had risen by 10% on natural land cover, which was “causing an increase in flooding events in the area,” the authors concluded.
The study is the latest in a series of investigations linking worsening flooding across Nigeria’s coastal cities to eroding wetlands.
A study published in February found that between 1984 and 2023, areas with buildings and infrastructure in Lagos expanded by 38%. Meanwhile, forest cover had declined by 32% and water bodies reduced by 11%, “reducing the natural flood buffering capacity of Lagos Megacity,” the authors wrote. With the persisting loss of vegetation and wetlands, the authors predicted, more than 60% of Lagos’ urban areas will be affected by extreme flooding by 2050.
Mark Ofua, the West Africa representative for Wild Africa, a conservation nonprofit, said that a real estate boom was to blame for the increasing ecological loss. “Lagos was historically surrounded by extensive wetlands and mangroves, but everywhere you turn now, especially around the suburbs, there’s land reclamation and construction going on.”
Meanwhile, a recent analysis by World Weather Attribution, a network of global scientists who analyze extreme weather events, concluded that the sprawling expansion of housing and development on wetlands, which soak up excess rainwater, puts low-lying coastal cities like Lagos at a high risk of flooding.
In May, Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency issued a flood alert for 15 Lagos communities likely to face flash floods between July and September, typically the peak of Nigeria’s rainy season.
While the impacts of floods on the people living in Lagos are well documented, far less understood is how flooding affects the city’s biodiversity.
There have been some sporadic reports of wildlife deaths. In 2024, for instance, more than 80% of wildlife, including snakes and birds, reportedly fled from a zoo in northern Nigeria after heavy flooding. The zoo managers were later alerted to an ostrich seen strutting around a neighborhood in a viral clip.
To control future flooding, Ofua said tougher enforcement on wetland encroachment is crucial.
“The government has to declare these areas as protected and stop more companies from land reclamation. We have to move from lip service to action,” he said.
Banner image: Commuters wade through heavy floodwater after a downpour in Lagos. Image courtesy of Folakemi Olaoni.
This story first appeared on Mongabay
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